{"id":10451,"date":"2019-04-09T09:53:08","date_gmt":"2019-04-09T08:53:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=10451"},"modified":"2019-07-22T10:54:46","modified_gmt":"2019-07-22T09:54:46","slug":"inverted-yield-curve-not-a-sell-signal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/inverted-yield-curve-not-a-sell-signal\/","title":{"rendered":"Inverted yield curve: not a sell signal"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1>Chart of the week<\/h1>\n<p>An inverted yield curve is often seen as a leading indicator of recession. Although sometimes the case, there can also be a substantial lag between curve inversion and the onset of recession. In the last cycle, the curve inverted at the start of 2006, almost two years before the US officially entered recession.<\/p>\n<p>Equity markets tend to trade lower ahead of recessions, so should we take this curve inversion as a sell signal for equities? History shows that the S&amp;P actually rose in the two years following the last four curve inversions: only in 1969 and 1973 did equities trade lower afterwards.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2019\/04\/09042019-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-10452 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2019\/04\/09042019-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1101\" height=\"587\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/09042019-1.png 1101w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/09042019-1-300x160.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/09042019-1-768x409.png 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/09042019-1-1024x546.png 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/09042019-1-600x320.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1101px) 100vw, 1101px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4><b>OUR<\/b> <b>ANALYSIS<\/b><\/h4>\n<p>Based on this analysis, we do not think the curve inversion seen from 22\u201328 March warrants scaling back on exposure to equities.<\/p>\n<p>A rebound in weekly jobless claims would, in our view, be a more reliable indicator of any imminent US economic recession. Yet, having risen for several months, jobless claims numbers actually turned back down in the last week of March to reach a 49-year low. This, we believe, indicates that the US recession is still quite a way off.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>The opinion expressed above is dated April 5th, 2019, and liable to change.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chart of the week An inverted yield curve is often seen as a leading indicator of recession. Although sometimes the&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":10449,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Inverted yield curve: not a sell signal &#8211; Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Inverted yield curve: not a sell signal Chart of the week Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/inverted-yield-curve-not-a-sell-signal\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Inverted yield curve: not a sell signal &#8211; 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