{"id":11908,"date":"2019-10-07T15:33:03","date_gmt":"2019-10-07T14:33:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=11908"},"modified":"2019-10-08T16:27:29","modified_gmt":"2019-10-08T15:27:29","slug":"united-states-a-strikingly-similar-picture-to-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/united-states-a-strikingly-similar-picture-to-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"United States: A strikingly similar picture to 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Chart of the week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>September\u2019s ISM indices were all but encouraging. The manufacturing ISM fell from 49.1 to 47.8, a level last seen in 2009 and not far off the January 2016 low of 48.0. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing ISM slid from 56.4 to 52.6, also nearing its 2016 low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1007\" height=\"663\" src=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2019\/10\/07102019-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-11909\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/07102019-2.png 1007w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/07102019-2-300x198.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/07102019-2-768x506.png 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/07102019-2-600x395.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1007px) 100vw, 1007px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>OUR ANALYSIS<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Are\nthe manufacturing sector\u2019s struggles starting to spill over to the rest of the\neconomy? It is too soon to say, but the picture is strikingly similar to that\nof 2016. The Markit PMI\nindices are sitting at 2016 levels, when year-on-year GDP growth hit a low of\n1.3% in the second quarter of 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unlike in 2016, other economic indicators are not yet signalling the onset of recession. While it is true that the weak ISM indices, which go beyond the manufacturing sector alone, are an invitation to monitor the situation closely, it is too early to abandon our central scenario of a non-recessionary slowdown. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The opinion expressed above is dated 4 October 2019, and liable to change.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">This document is not\npre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information\npurposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be\ninterpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document\ndoes not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an\nencouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard\nFr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION \u2013 a\nsimplified joint stock company with share capital of \u20ac14,487,500 &#8211; Paris Trade\nand Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES &#8211; 75008 PARIS, FRANCE<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>September\u2019s ISM indices were all but encouraging. The manufacturing ISM fell from 49.1 to 47.8, a level last seen in 2009 and not far off the January 2016 low of 48.0. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":11913,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11908","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>United States: A strikingly similar picture to 2016 &#8211; Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"United States: A strikingly similar picture to 2016 Chart of the week Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/united-states-a-strikingly-similar-picture-to-2016\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"United States: A strikingly similar picture to 2016 &#8211; 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