{"id":12049,"date":"2019-10-14T17:08:59","date_gmt":"2019-10-14T16:08:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=12049"},"modified":"2019-10-15T10:07:55","modified_gmt":"2019-10-15T09:07:55","slug":"uk-set-to-avoid-a-recession-so-far","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/uk-set-to-avoid-a-recession-so-far\/","title":{"rendered":"UK set to avoid a recession (so far)"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Chart of the week<\/h2>\n<p>The UK\u2019s monthly GDP estimate for August, as calculated by the Office for National Statistics, indicates that the economy shrank by 0.1%. Combined with July\u2019s 0.4% growth figure and the carry-over effect, third-quarter growth is set to come in at an annualised 1.9%. In other words, if September\u2019s GDP is in line with the level seen in August, then UK third-quarter growth will be 1.9% compared with -0.9% for the second quarter.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-12052\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1111\" height=\"631\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-2.png 1111w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-2-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-2-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-2-1024x582.png 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-2-600x341.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1111px) 100vw, 1111px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>You may also want to read :\u00a0<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/united-states-latest-signals-inconsistent-with-an-imminent-recession\/\">United States: Latest signals inconsistent with an imminent recession<\/a><\/p>\n<h2><b>OUR<\/b> <b>ANALYSIS<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>Barring anything untoward in September, the UK is set to avoid a technical recession \u2013 two consecutive quarters of contraction \u2013 in the third quarter. That said, survey data is not encouraging. The composite PMI index is now at 49.3, its lowest level since July 2016, just after the shock Brexit referendum result.<\/p>\n<p>The current outlook for Brexit remains unclear and all possible scenarios remain on the table. However, the likelihood of a new withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU seems to have faded over the last few days. The government may manage to sidestep the Benn Act, which forces it to seek an extension in the absence of agreement on October 19th. This would then open the door to a no-deal Brexit on October 31st.<\/p>\n<p>The impact of a no-deal exit is highly uncertain, but the regulatory changes and practical aspects of the withdrawal will likely prove more of a drag on growth than any new customs duties.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>The opinion expressed above is dated 10 October 2019, and liable to change.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>The articles we recommend you :<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u27a1\ufe0f <a href=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/united-states-a-strikingly-similar-picture-to-2016\/\">United States: A strikingly similar picture to 2016<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u27a1\ufe0f <a href=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/china-mixed-signals-from-the-economy\/\">China: Mixed signals from the economy<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u27a1\ufe0f <a href=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/united-states-labour-market-resilient-despite-the-slowdown-in-job-creation\/\">United States: Labour market resilient despite the slowdown in job creation<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION \u2013 a simplified joint stock company with share capital of \u20ac14,487,500 &#8211; Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES &#8211; 75008 PARIS, FRANCE<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chart of the week The UK\u2019s monthly GDP estimate for August, as calculated by the Office for National Statistics, indicates&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":12059,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>UK set to avoid a recession (so far) &#8211; Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The UK\u2019s monthly GDP estimate for August, as calculated by the Office for National Statistics, indicates that the economy shrank by 0.1% ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/uk-set-to-avoid-a-recession-so-far\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"UK set to avoid a recession (so far) &#8211; 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