{"id":12073,"date":"2019-10-24T10:08:55","date_gmt":"2019-10-24T09:08:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=12073"},"modified":"2019-10-24T10:08:55","modified_gmt":"2019-10-24T09:08:55","slug":"united-states-economic-outlook-s2-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/united-states-economic-outlook-s2-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"United-States | Economic outlook S2 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>No sign from typical leading recession indicators in the US<\/h2>\n<p>We have identified four indicators that typically deteriorate 12 to 18 months ahead of a recession: weekly jobless claims, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), single-family housing permits and corporate profit volumes. Historically, recessions have always been preceded by a sharp deterioration in at least three of these four indicators.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-5.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-12074\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"637\" height=\"380\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-5.png 637w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-5-300x179.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-5-600x358.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 637px) 100vw, 637px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This is not currently the case. In spite of the slowdown in job creation numbers, weekly jobless claims are still at low levels, the LEI has reached new highs, single-family housing permits have turned back up and corporate profits have been more or less stable since 2016.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-6.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-12076\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"637\" height=\"316\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-6.png 637w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-6-300x149.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-6-600x298.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 637px) 100vw, 637px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>That said, a yellow light has been flashing since the manufacturing ISM new orders component dipped below 50, even if historically this does not necessarily imply the onset of a recession (cf. 2012 and 2015).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-7.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-12078\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-7.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"625\" height=\"358\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-7.png 625w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-7-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-7-600x344.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 625px) 100vw, 625px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>An escalation in the trade war is a factor to watch. The question is, with the US elections now approaching, will President Trump want to take the risk of dampening the economy further? If he wants US growth to be accelerating during the 2020 election period, then a trade agreement will have to be found in the next few months. As soon as the first half of 2020 is in the rear-view mirror, it could be tempting for the Chinese to stall negotiations until his successor is elected.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Glossary<\/b><b>:<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>Conference Board: <\/b>Founded in 1916, the Conference Board is a non-profit business membership and research group that compiles data from a great many economic sources.<\/p>\n<p><b>QE or Quantitative Easing: <\/b>An \u2018unconventional\u2019 central bank monetary policy that involves buying massive quantities of debt from financial institutions.<\/p>\n<p><b>TLTRO: <\/b>Targeted longer-term refinancing operations are long-term loans (three years) extended by the ECB to eurozone banks.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>See also : Europe| Economic outlook S2 2019<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>The opinion expressed above is dated September 2019 and is liable to change. Latest available data is used.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial; font-size: small;\">This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>No sign from typical leading recession indicators in the US We have identified four indicators that typically deteriorate 12 to&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":12228,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[98],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>United-States | Economic outlook S2 2019 &#8211; Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We have identified four indicators that typically deteriorate 12 to 18 months ahead of a recession: weekly jobless claims, the Conference ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/united-states-economic-outlook-s2-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"United-States | Economic outlook S2 2019 &#8211; 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