{"id":12089,"date":"2019-10-24T10:07:46","date_gmt":"2019-10-24T09:07:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=12089"},"modified":"2019-10-24T10:07:46","modified_gmt":"2019-10-24T09:07:46","slug":"china-economic-outlook-s2-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/china-economic-outlook-s2-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"China | Economic outlook S2 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Carefully steered growth in China and supportive monetary policies across the emerging markets<\/h2>\n<p>The US-China trade war poses a significant risk to Chinese growth and the effects are already being felt in the economy. Higher customs duties have reduced US demand for heavily taxed products and manufacturing sector investment has slowed from its peak level in 2018.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2019\/10\/14102019-11.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-12090\" src=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2019\/10\/14102019-11.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"633\" height=\"346\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-11.png 633w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-11-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-11-600x328.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 633px) 100vw, 633px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Government stimulus should help avoid a hard landing for China\u2019s growth but just how much difference it will make remains to be seen. Currently, credit expansion is the main driver. The growth rebound remains moderate, especially compared with previous cycles, but depending on how the economic picture evolves, the authorities can be expected to maintain a balance between propping up growth and managing financial risk.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2019\/10\/14102019-12.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-12092\" src=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2019\/10\/14102019-12.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"631\" height=\"362\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-12.png 631w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-12-300x172.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-12-600x344.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 631px) 100vw, 631px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The downturn in car sales that started in 2018 has continued into 2019, although some of the weakness is due to regulatory constraints that aimed to restrict vehicle registration numbers. With the recent announcement that the rules will be relaxed, the hope is now that vehicle sales can stabilise.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2019\/10\/14102019-13.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-12094\" src=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2019\/10\/14102019-13.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"619\" height=\"360\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-13.png 619w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-13-300x174.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-13-600x349.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 619px) 100vw, 619px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Elsewhere in emerging markets, following sharp falls since the second half of 2018, growth stabilised in the second quarter of 2019 due to a rebound in several larger countries including Brazil, South Africa, Russia and Turkey. This growth rebound nonetheless needs consolidating and the current slowdown in global trade is dampening the outlook for emerging markets given the tight links between the two. This is even truer for the Asian countries that depend on global trade and are, in addition, particularly exposed to the Chinese slowdown.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2019\/10\/14102019-14.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-12096\" src=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2019\/10\/14102019-14.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"647\" height=\"500\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-14.png 647w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-14-300x232.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/14102019-14-600x464.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 647px) 100vw, 647px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Against a backdrop of widespread moderate inflation, the accommodative shift in developed countries\u2019 monetary policies is nonetheless providing headroom for central banks in the emerging markets, which are lowering interest rates in a bid to boost growth.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>See also : Market outlook S2 2019<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>The opinion expressed above is dated September 2019 and is liable to change. Latest available data is used.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Arial; font-size: small;\">This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Carefully steered growth in China and supportive monetary policies across the emerging markets The US-China trade war poses a significant&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":12232,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[98],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12089","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>China | Economic outlook S2 2019 &#8211; Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The US-China trade war poses a significant risk to Chinese growth and the effects are already being felt in the economy. 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