{"id":12879,"date":"2020-01-20T13:40:09","date_gmt":"2020-01-20T12:40:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=12879"},"modified":"2020-01-20T13:40:09","modified_gmt":"2020-01-20T12:40:09","slug":"trade-war-armistice-or-ceasefire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/trade-war-armistice-or-ceasefire\/","title":{"rendered":"Trade war: armistice or ceasefire?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Chart of the week<\/h2>\n<p>It&#8217;s done. Almost two years after the start of the trade war, the United States and China signed a partial trade agreement on 15 January.<\/p>\n<p>The 96-page agreement, available on the website of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative [1], includes several parts, the most concrete of which is China&#8217;s commitment to increase its imports of U.S. goods and services by $200 billion in two years from their 2017 level.<\/p>\n<p>The breakdown of purchases includes an increase in imports of manufactured goods (USD 78 billion), energy (USD 52 billion), services (USD 38 billion) and agricultural products (USD 32 billion).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-12880\" src=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2020\/01\/17012020-6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1319\" height=\"571\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/17012020-6.png 1319w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/17012020-6-300x130.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/17012020-6-768x332.png 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/17012020-6-1024x443.png 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/17012020-6-600x260.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1319px) 100vw, 1319px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Our analyse<\/h2>\n<p>The increase in Chinese imports from the United States sought by the agreement corresponds to an almost doubling of Chinese imports from the United States in a very short period of time, raising the question of the credibility of such an objective. Observers agree that it is achievable but that it will not be easy.<\/p>\n<p>The fulfilment of this promise is therefore questionable (as are the others) and the two countries could then resume hostilities. All the more so as the second phase of the negotiations could prove delicate, dealing with certain sensitive subjects such as public subsidies to Chinese companies.<\/p>\n<p>That said, before the next figures and the start of the second phase of the negotiations, the risk of a further escalation of tensions has diminished, as the timetable is still uncertain. This reduction in trade uncertainties should contribute to an improvement in the situation in the manufacturing sector over the coming months, the main area of weakness in the world economy.<\/p>\n<p>[1] <a href=\"https:\/\/ustr.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/files\/agreements\/phase%20one%20agreement\/Economic_And_Trade_Agreement_Between_The_United_States_And_China_Text.pdf\">https:\/\/ustr.gov\/sites\/default\/files\/files\/agreements\/phase%20one%20agreement\/Economic_And_Trade_Agreement_Between_The_United_States_And_China_Text.pdf<\/a><u><\/u><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>See also :<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/united-states-trade-deficit-falls-sharply\/<\/p>\n<p><em>The opinion expressed above is dated 16 January 2020, and liable to change.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION \u2013 a simplified joint stock company with share capital of \u20ac14,487,500 &#8211; Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES &#8211; 75008 PARIS, FRANCE<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chart of the week It&#8217;s done. Almost two years after the start of the trade war, the United States and&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":12893,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trade war: armistice or ceasefire? &#8211; Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It&#039;s done. 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