{"id":1289,"date":"2016-02-01T16:13:16","date_gmt":"2016-02-01T15:13:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/?p=1289\/?p=1289"},"modified":"2016-02-02T16:14:30","modified_gmt":"2016-02-02T15:14:30","slug":"united-states-a-mid-cycle-slowdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/united-states-a-mid-cycle-slowdown\/","title":{"rendered":"United States: a mid-cycle slowdown"},"content":{"rendered":"

CHART OF THE WEEK<\/b><\/h1>\n

As <\/b>expected, US growth continued to slacken in the fourth quarter of 2015<\/b>, increasing at an annual rate of 0.7%. Despite losing pace, consumer spending remains solid, and residential construction is still growing at a rate of about 8%. Public spending is another positive factor.<\/p>\n

\"Chart<\/p>\n

Our analysis<\/b><\/p>\n

Amongst the factors holding back growth are exports, and non residential investment which was penalized by cuts associated with the drop in oil prices. However, the lower change in inventories was the main drag in 2015Q4<\/b>. As the decline was lower than expected, inventory building remains relatively high, creating a risk for the first quarter of 2016. That said, inventories are prone to sharp revisions in subsequent GDP estimates.<\/p>\n

We believe that the United States is experiencing a mid-cycle slowdown but is not on the verge of a new recession<\/b>. In 2016, once excess inventory has been reduced and the downturn in shale-oil related investment is behind us, growth should pick back up<\/b>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CHART OF THE WEEK As expected, US growth continued to slacken in the fourth quarter of 2015, increasing at an… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":930,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1289","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week"],"yoast_head":"\nUnited States: a mid-cycle slowdown – Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"United States: a mid-cycle slowdown Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/united-states-a-mid-cycle-slowdown\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" 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