{"id":14987,"date":"2020-10-02T16:10:37","date_gmt":"2020-10-02T15:10:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=14987"},"modified":"2023-02-08T09:47:32","modified_gmt":"2023-02-08T08:47:32","slug":"economic-outlook-s2-2020-long-lasting-crisis-effects-versus-continued-massive-economic-support","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/economic-outlook-s2-2020-long-lasting-crisis-effects-versus-continued-massive-economic-support\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic outlook S2 2020 | Long-lasting crisis effects versus continued massive economic support"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Part 3 : long-lasting crisis effects versus continued massive economic support<\/h2>\n<p>Even if, by year-end, the economy is running much closer to near-normal levels than to the extraordinary lows experienced in the spring, the year-on-year decline will still be the equivalent of a major recession.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-14988 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1227\" height=\"699\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-5.png 1227w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-5-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-5-1024x583.png 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-5-768x438.png 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-5-600x342.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1227px) 100vw, 1227px\" \/><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">As of : September 2020<\/span><\/p>\n<p>The full impact of the crisis has yet to unfold. Bankruptcy suspensions in many countries are concealing the effect of the crisis on the whole productive apparatus and on the employment situation. In Europe, although short-time working schemes have helped limit the rise in unemployment, the picture continues to worsen despite the economic rebound. In the United States, of the 13.5 million unemployed in August, 6.2 million were classified as temporary layoffs, but they could become permanent.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-14990 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1237\" height=\"761\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-6.png 1237w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-6-300x185.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-6-1024x630.png 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-6-768x472.png 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-6-600x369.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1237px) 100vw, 1237px\" \/><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">As of : September 2020<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-14992 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-7.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1215\" height=\"771\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-7.png 1215w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-7-300x190.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-7-1024x650.png 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-7-768x487.png 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-7-600x381.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1215px) 100vw, 1215px\" \/><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">As of : September 2020<\/span><\/p>\n<p>While the full effect of the crisis remains uncertain, the massive fiscal and monetary response should continue to fuel the recovery. The announcements made by Jerome Powell in Jackson Hole suggest that the FED\u2019s supportive monetary stance is here to stay. In addition, the developed world\u2019s low interest rate policies are easing the financial burden attached to the ever-higher levels of public debt that are the flipside of implementing fiscal measures on a totally unprecedented scale.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-14994 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-8.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1221\" height=\"763\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-8.png 1221w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-8-300x187.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-8-1024x640.png 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-8-768x480.png 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pespectives-Engl-figure-8-600x375.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1221px) 100vw, 1221px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Fiscal tightening remains unlikely in the short term. Instead, support measures are being stepped up, including the extension of short-time working provisions and the introduction of fresh recovery packages. Negotiations for a new support package in the United States are however in stalemate. Although all these support provisions are an unprecedented response to an unprecedented crisis, we could also be shifting towards a paradigm of sustained higher government spending.<\/p>\n<p>All these measures should enable the developed markets to return to their pre-COVID levels by the end of 2021.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>To download our Economic Outlook click <a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Economic-and-market-outlook-september-2020_vf.pdf\">here.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>See also :\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/economic-outlook-s2-2020-an-unpredictable-epidemic-but-a-return-to-full-lockdown-unlikely\/\">https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/economic-outlook-s2-2020-an-unpredictable-epidemic-but-a-return-to-full-lockdown-unlikely\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>The opinion expressed above is dated September 2020 and is liable to change. Latest available data is used.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION \u2013 a simplified joint stock company with share capital of \u20ac14,487,500 &#8211; Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES &#8211; 75008 PARIS, FRANCE<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Part 3 : long-lasting crisis effects versus continued massive economic support Even if, by year-end, the economy is running much&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":14958,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[231],"tags":[2044,1987,2006,2102,2104,2103],"class_list":["post-14987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-outlook","tag-consumption","tag-crisis-en","tag-economy","tag-household","tag-recession-en","tag-unemployed"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - 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