{"id":16060,"date":"2021-02-25T15:48:23","date_gmt":"2021-02-25T14:48:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=16060"},"modified":"2023-02-08T10:24:00","modified_gmt":"2023-02-08T09:24:00","slug":"market-outlook-s1-2021-bond-markets-higher-us-long-term-rates-and-central-bank-support-for-credit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/market-outlook-s1-2021-bond-markets-higher-us-long-term-rates-and-central-bank-support-for-credit\/","title":{"rendered":"Market outlook S1 2021 | Bond markets: higher US long-term rates and central bank support for credit"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Part 4 : Bond markets: higher US long-term rates and central bank support for credit<\/h2>\n<p>The consensus expectation is that rates will remain low for at least four years. Even if the situation improves significantly, central bank rate hikes seem unimaginable before 2022.\u00a0 This does not, however, rule out higher long-term rates<\/p>\n<p>Real interest rates are even lower now than they were before the 2013 taper tantrum, and the spread between long and short rates is still well below historic highs. Should long-term rates rise sharply, the Fed could conceivably intervene to manage the slope of the yield curve without flattening it so much that it no longer supported the financial sector.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16084 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Eco-Outlook-graph-11.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1282\" height=\"853\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Eco-Outlook-graph-11.jpg 1282w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Eco-Outlook-graph-11-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Eco-Outlook-graph-11-1024x681.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Eco-Outlook-graph-11-768x511.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1282px) 100vw, 1282px\" \/> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16086 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Eco-Outlook-graph-12.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1283\" height=\"861\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Eco-Outlook-graph-12.jpg 1283w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Eco-Outlook-graph-12-300x201.jpg 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Eco-Outlook-graph-12-1024x687.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Eco-Outlook-graph-12-768x515.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1283px) 100vw, 1283px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In addition to the issuance resulting from the new fiscal support measures, the market will probably also have to absorb a recalibration in its average maturity profile, since the US Treasury issued a large volume of short-dated securities in 2020. Contagion effects could prompt a rise in European long-term rates, albeit to a lesser extent.<\/p>\n<p>Amid very low government rates, the credit segment remains an attractive investment. Credit spreads are approaching their low point of recent years, but the additional yield offered by the riskiest segments is still attractive, with returns close to carry levels. High yield should significantly outperform cash, with central bank purchases limiting the risk of spread widening.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16088 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Eco-Outlook-graph-13.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1264\" height=\"1060\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Eco-Outlook-graph-13.jpg 1264w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Eco-Outlook-graph-13-300x252.jpg 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Eco-Outlook-graph-13-1024x859.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/Eco-Outlook-graph-13-768x644.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1264px) 100vw, 1264px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>To download our Economic Outlook click <a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/LAZARD-Resume-des-Perspectives-e%CC%81conomiques-Janvier-2021-EN.pdf\">here.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>See also:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/market-outlook-s1-2021-equity-markets-set-to-rise-further\/\">https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/market-outlook-s1-2021-equity-markets-set-to-rise-further\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>The opinion expressed above is dated January 2021 and is liable to change. Latest available data as of publication date.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION \u2013 a simplified joint stock company with share capital of \u20ac14,487,500 &#8211; Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES &#8211; 75008 PARIS, FRANCE<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Part 4 : Bond markets: higher US long-term rates and central bank support for credit The consensus expectation is that&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":14960,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[231],"tags":[2143,2219,2220],"class_list":["post-16060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-outlook","tag-central-banks","tag-long-term-rates","tag-short-dated-securities"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Market outlook S1 2021 | Bond markets: higher US long-term rates<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The consensus expectation is that rates will remain low for at least four years. 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