{"id":16240,"date":"2021-03-23T17:35:32","date_gmt":"2021-03-23T16:35:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=16240"},"modified":"2023-02-08T09:38:37","modified_gmt":"2023-02-08T08:38:37","slug":"chinas-economic-recovery-continues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/chinas-economic-recovery-continues\/","title":{"rendered":"China&#8217;s economic recovery continues"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Chart of the week<\/h2>\n<p>China\u2019s economic data for the first two months of 2021 show three key indicators improving significantly: year-on-year, industrial output rose 35.1%, retail sales were up 33.8%, and investment grew +35.0%. In addition, China\u2019s foreign trade data, which were released earlier in the month, rose sharply with exports particularly strong at +60.6%.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-16241 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/graphique-de-la-semaine-10-angl.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1643\" height=\"899\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/graphique-de-la-semaine-10-angl.jpg 1643w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/graphique-de-la-semaine-10-angl-300x164.jpg 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/graphique-de-la-semaine-10-angl-1024x560.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/graphique-de-la-semaine-10-angl-768x420.jpg 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/graphique-de-la-semaine-10-angl-1536x840.jpg 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1643px) 100vw, 1643px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><b>Our analysis<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>These figures alone do not tell us a great deal about China\u2019s economic momentum. The year-on-year changes are comparing activity levels from this year with the same period in 2020 when the Chinese authorities closed whole sections of the economy. The low base being used for the year-on-year comparison results in an artificially strong rebound.<\/p>\n<p>A more accurate picture can be gleaned by seasonally adjusting data to compare variations from one month to the next.\u00a0 Although seasonally adjusted data are rare for China, they are available for industrial output, retail sales, and investment.<\/p>\n<p>Data quality issues aside, both industrial output and investment for January and February seem to be improving at healthy growth rates of 4.1% and 15.1% respectively (annualised). In contrast, retail sales appear to have slowed (-2.5% annualised) due to the travel restrictions that were imposed during Chinese New Year.<\/p>\n<p>Overall, China\u2019s economic recovery appears to be continuing and with activity levels returning to normal, the authorities can refocus on managing financial risk. However, they are unlikely to tighten economic policy very sharply as growth and employment remain key targets. In other words, a delicate balancing act faces the Chinese authorities.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>See also:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/a-ramp-up-in-europes-vaccination-campaign\/\">https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/a-ramp-up-in-europes-vaccination-campaign\/<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>The following opinion was written on March 17th 2021 and is susceptible of changing.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION \u2013 a simplified joint stock company with share capital of \u20ac14,487,500 &#8211; Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES &#8211; 75008 PARIS, FRANCE<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chart of the week China\u2019s economic data for the first two months of 2021 show three key indicators improving significantly:&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":15179,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[1980,2011,2173],"class_list":["post-16240","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week","tag-china-en","tag-growth","tag-investment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>China&#039;s economic recovery continues &#8211; 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