{"id":16534,"date":"2021-05-05T15:18:05","date_gmt":"2021-05-05T14:18:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=16534"},"modified":"2021-05-07T11:41:06","modified_gmt":"2021-05-07T10:41:06","slug":"united-states-towards-a-record-trade-deficit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/united-states-towards-a-record-trade-deficit\/","title":{"rendered":"United States: towards a record trade deficit?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Chart of the week<\/h2>\n<p>March\u2019s traded goods data seem to indicate a further widening in the trade deficit. The goods deficit for the month reached a record level of $90.6 billion*.<\/p>\n<p>Imports have accelerated recently, rising 7.5% in the last three months. Exports have been rising too, and almost as fast (+6.6%), but with the volume of imports 1.6 times greater than that of exports, the deficit has widened significantly.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-16537\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/graphique-semaine-16-nagl-300x176.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"810\" height=\"475\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/graphique-semaine-16-nagl-300x176.jpg 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/graphique-semaine-16-nagl-1024x601.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/graphique-semaine-16-nagl-768x450.jpg 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/graphique-semaine-16-nagl-1536x901.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/graphique-semaine-16-nagl.jpg 1872w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 810px) 100vw, 810px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><b>OUR ANALYSIS<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>The overall US trade deficit, which includes the services balance, has deepened significantly over the past twelve months. While the gap had hovered around $45 billion for a decade, February\u2019s number exceeded $70 billion and is heading towards a new record in March*.<\/p>\n<p>Although the shale revolution has reduced imports of petroleum products, other imports have risen by as much. At 3.8% of GDP, the first-quarter deficit reached a level not seen since 2008*. The previous low point was at the end of 2005 when the gap stood at 5.9%.<\/p>\n<p>First-quarter GDP data also indicate a negative impact from declines in inventories and we can expect imports to rise as inventories readjust. In addition, the trade deficit can be expected to widen further as imports receive a boost from greater US domestic demand driven by the economy reopening and significant stimulus, especially the direct government transfers to households. That said, the overall effect may be tempered by rising demand from Europe, as America\u2019s main export destination reopens.<\/p>\n<p>If the US trade deficit widens significantly, the impact of stimulus on growth could be hampered and the dollar may find itself under pressure.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">See also:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/israel-and-the-united-kingdom-two-back-to-normal-test-cases\/\">https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/israel-and-the-united-kingdom-two-back-to-normal-test-cases\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">The following opinion was written on April 30th 2021 and is susceptible of changing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">*Sources : Bloomberg and Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion, the April 30th 2021<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION \u2013 a simplified joint stock company with share capital of \u20ac14,487,500 &#8211; Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES &#8211; 75008 PARIS, FRANCE<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chart of the week March\u2019s traded goods data seem to indicate a further widening in the trade deficit. The goods&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":16535,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148,97],"tags":[2293,2292,2290,2291,1922],"class_list":["post-16534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week","category-news","tag-exports","tag-imports","tag-international-trade","tag-trade-deficit","tag-united-states"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>United States: towards a record trade deficit? &#8211; Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"United States: towards a record trade deficit? 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