{"id":16786,"date":"2021-06-24T15:23:12","date_gmt":"2021-06-24T14:23:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=16786"},"modified":"2021-06-24T15:24:12","modified_gmt":"2021-06-24T14:24:12","slug":"fed-meeting-twists-the-yield-curve","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/fed-meeting-twists-the-yield-curve\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed meeting twists the yield curve"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Chart of the week<\/h2>\n<p>In the days immediately following the Fed\u2019s weekly meeting on 16 June, markets were volatile and the US yield curve twisted. While yields on short-dated US treasury notes (one month to one year) hardly moved, intermediate yields (two to five years) rose significantly and yields on the longest maturities (10, 20 and 30 years) fell sharply.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-16787\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/graphique-semaine-21-300x148.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"819\" height=\"404\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/graphique-semaine-21-300x148.jpg 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/graphique-semaine-21-1024x506.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/graphique-semaine-21-768x379.jpg 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/graphique-semaine-21-1536x759.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/graphique-semaine-21.jpg 1941w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><b>OUR ANALYSIS<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>In the short term, the Fed is not expected to increase interest rates, which explains the relative stability in the short end of the yield curve. However, the dot plot, which displays the FOMC members\u2019 policy rate projections, did not go unnoticed. A growing number of members are now expecting a rate increase in 2023 and their median forecast for the year has climbed from zero to two increases. That was all it took for yields on notes with maturities between two and five years to rise.<\/p>\n<p>Logically, this upward pressure should have also led to a rise in long-term yields, which are still extremely low. Instead, they fell, almost as if the market were pricing in a future normalisation of monetary policy and excluding any impact on long-term yields from a scaling back of the central bank\u2019s asset purchase programme. Yet the Fed has always made it clear that rates will be increased once purchasing has been scaled back.<\/p>\n<p>One possible explanation is that investors believe the Covid-19 crisis has pushed down equilibrium interest rates, as did the 2008 financial crisis. In this case, the Federal Reserve would raise rates but less than previously, effectively anchoring them at lower levels. However, the Covid-19 crisis differs in many ways from the last recession and not least in terms of government spending, which is set to increase significantly if the Biden administration&#8217;s budget proposal is anything to go by.<\/p>\n<p>A simpler explanation may be that the shift is part of a market correction driven by investor positioning and the fact that many had started anticipating higher rates. Things will become clearer in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>See also:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/economic-recovery-forecasting-more-complex-than-ever-before\/\">https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/economic-recovery-forecasting-more-complex-than-ever-before\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">The following opinion was written on June 21th 2021 and is susceptible of changing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">Sources :Bloomberg and Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion, June 21th 2021 <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION \u2013 a simplified joint stock company with share capital of \u20ac14,487,500 &#8211; Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES &#8211; 75008 PARIS, FRANCE<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chart of the week In the days immediately following the Fed\u2019s weekly meeting on 16 June, markets were volatile and&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":16783,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[2006,1925,2361,2107,2362],"class_list":["post-16786","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week","tag-economy","tag-fed-en","tag-federal-reserve","tag-interest-rates","tag-yields"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed meeting twists the yield curve &#8211; 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