{"id":17481,"date":"2021-12-13T18:14:41","date_gmt":"2021-12-13T17:14:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=17481"},"modified":"2021-12-14T10:46:22","modified_gmt":"2021-12-14T09:46:22","slug":"omicron-variant-pushes-sovereign-interest-rates-to-abnormally-low-levels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/omicron-variant-pushes-sovereign-interest-rates-to-abnormally-low-levels\/","title":{"rendered":"Omicron variant pushes sovereign interest rates to abnormally low levels"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Chart of the week<\/h2>\n<p>With the announcement of the new Omicron variant on November 26, fixed income market interest rates fell significantly. Investors seem to have anticipated an increased risk of national lockdowns, considering that such a scenario would be associated with prolonged monetary support from central banks. Between November 25 and December 6, the 10-year Bund yield lost 15 basis points, dropping from -0.24% to -0.39%*. In both Europe and the United States, the long end of the yield curve was particularly affected.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-17474\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Capture-1-1-300x156.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"797\" height=\"414\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Capture-1-1-300x156.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Capture-1-1-1024x533.png 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Capture-1-1-768x400.png 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Capture-1-1-1536x799.png 1536w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/12\/Capture-1-1.png 1857w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 797px) 100vw, 797px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><b>OUR ANALYSIS<\/b><\/h2>\n<p>This downward movement in fixed income yields is occurring at a time when most regions of the world are seeing a strong resurgence of inflation. Several central banks have been engaged in a new interest rate hike cycle since September. In the United States, the Fed is preparing the public for a more restrictive monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p>In this context, sovereign rates on the fixed income market already seemed abnormally low before the announcement of the new Omicron variant. Real interest rates, corresponding to nominal rates minus inflation, were at historically low negative levels in both Europe and the US. The further decline in yields, observed at the end of November, increases this imbalance.<\/p>\n<p>As inflation continues to rise, particularly in Europe, central banks have little leeway to maintain ultra-accommodative monetary policies. Market expectations, which are excessively cautious about the rise in interest rates, seem to us to be out of step with the next steps for the year 2022. The gradual end of central bank support, coupled with sustained growth, should result in a rebound in bond yields in the months ahead. For this reason, in some of our portfolios we opt for &#8220;negative duration&#8221; strategies, in order to benefit from a rise in interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>See also:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/euro-zone-inflation-continues-to-accelerate\/\">https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/euro-zone-inflation-continues-to-accelerate\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">***<\/p>\n<p>The following opinion was written on December 10, 2021 and is susceptible of changing.<\/p>\n<p>*Sources : Bloomberg, and calculation from Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion<\/p>\n<p>As of : December 10, 2021<\/p>\n<p>This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION \u2013 a simplified joint stock company with share capital of \u20ac14,487,500 &#8211; Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES &#8211; 75008 PARIS, FRANCE<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chart of the week With the announcement of the new Omicron variant on November 26, fixed income market interest rates&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":17478,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[2143,2516,2107,2189,2517,2515,2518],"class_list":["post-17481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week","tag-central-banks","tag-fixed-income-market","tag-interest-rates","tag-investors","tag-national-lockdowns","tag-omicron-variant","tag-prolonged-monetary-support"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Omicron variant pushes sovereign interest rates to abnormally low levels &#8211; 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