{"id":19334,"date":"2023-02-14T11:48:12","date_gmt":"2023-02-14T10:48:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/?p=19334"},"modified":"2023-02-14T11:48:46","modified_gmt":"2023-02-14T10:48:46","slug":"market-outlook-january-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/market-outlook-january-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Market outlook &#8211; January 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Bond\/currency markets: attractive yields<\/h2>\n<p>In the eurozone, the ECB speech on 15 December 2022 was more hawkish than expected, promising further rate hikes and announcing a timetable for balance-sheet shrinkage. However, since the start of 2023, markets have been ratcheting down their expectations for short-term rates. They now price in 125\u00a0bps of rate hikes over 2023 (Figure\u00a011).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-19316\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-11-perspectives-0123-ENG-300x175.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"965\" height=\"563\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-11-perspectives-0123-ENG-300x175.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-11-perspectives-0123-ENG-768x448.png 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-11-perspectives-0123-ENG.png 962w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 965px) 100vw, 965px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In the United States, the Fed&#8217;s December speech was also tougher than expected, mentioning an upwardly revised federal funds rate peak and elevated rates throughout 2023. Market expectations are considerably more moderate, with investors anticipating rate cuts as early as the second half of 2023 (Figure\u00a012).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-19318\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-12-perspectives-0123-ENG-300x177.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"937\" height=\"553\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-12-perspectives-0123-ENG-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-12-perspectives-0123-ENG-768x453.png 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-12-perspectives-0123-ENG.png 992w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 937px) 100vw, 937px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In Japan, the rise in domestic rates could lead to capital flows returning home with the Japanese repatriating some of their USD\u00a02.4\u00a0trillion international bond holdings, which in turn could exert upward pressure on western rates. Indeed, Japanese investors seeking to hedge US dollar exposures are facing effective negative yields on US 10-year notes.<\/p>\n<p>In the credit segment, yields have returned to around 4% for good quality European companies (Figure\u00a013). This could cushion credit spreads from widening back to 2012 levels. Credit spreads for lower quality European companies could still temporarily widen under a recession scenario, although yields are already attractive at around 7%.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-19320\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-13-perspectives-0123-ENG-300x188.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1130\" height=\"708\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-13-perspectives-0123-ENG-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-13-perspectives-0123-ENG-768x481.png 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-13-perspectives-0123-ENG.png 975w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1130px) 100vw, 1130px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In foreign exchange, the euro-dollar continues to move in line with the short-term interest rate differential. A likely upward adjustment in Fed rate expectations could therefore lead to another rebound in the US dollar. In the longer term, we can expect the exchange rate to return to levels more consistent with purchasing power parity, the implication being that a sharp rebound in the euro against the dollar lies ahead (Figure\u00a014).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-19322\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-14-perspectives-0123-ENG-300x183.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1177\" height=\"718\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-14-perspectives-0123-ENG-300x183.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-14-perspectives-0123-ENG.png 973w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1177px) 100vw, 1177px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Overly optimistic equity markets?<\/h2>\n<p>We believe that earnings expectations for 2023 are too optimistic. While the buoyant start to 2023 may bring further surprises to the upside, an ineluctable recession will, at some point, drag on growth (Figure\u00a015).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-19324\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-15-perspectives-0123-ENG-300x202.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"827\" height=\"557\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-15-perspectives-0123-ENG-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-15-perspectives-0123-ENG-768x517.png 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-15-perspectives-0123-ENG.png 981w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 827px) 100vw, 827px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In addition, equity market valuations are not especially cheap. Indeed, while the valuations in most markets sit below historical averages, they remain well above recession levels (Figure\u00a016).<\/p>\n<p>As interest rates rise, equity returns become relatively less attractive. European bond\u2013equity spreads are at their narrowest for the past decade and in the US, equity risk premia are very low.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-19326\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-16-perspectives-0123-ENG-300x206.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"915\" height=\"628\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-16-perspectives-0123-ENG-300x206.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-16-perspectives-0123-ENG-768x528.png 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-16-perspectives-0123-ENG.png 995w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 915px) 100vw, 915px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion: financial markets<\/h2>\n<p>Most asset classes are facing challenging times as central banks raise rates in a bid to combat inflation while concomitantly raising the risk of triggering a recession.<\/p>\n<p>While we cannot rule out positive surprises in the next 3\u20134 months given the resilience of the economy, we believe that equity markets remain threatened by further monetary policy tightening and a very likely recession in the year ahead. Aside from the fact that valuation lows are usually reached after the onset of recession (Figure 17), current valuation levels do not appear exceptionally cheap. Patience remains the order of the day.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-19328\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-17-perspectives-0123-ENG-300x203.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1068\" height=\"723\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-17-perspectives-0123-ENG-300x203.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-17-perspectives-0123-ENG-768x520.png 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Graphique-17-perspectives-0123-ENG.png 978w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1068px) 100vw, 1068px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, given the higher interest rates and widening credit spreads, bonds are currently offering attractive yields. The context calls for a gradual approach to fixed-income investment in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Lazard-Freres-Gestion-Economic-and-market-outlook-2023.pdf\">To download our Market Outlook click here.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>See also : https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/fixed-income-in-2022\/\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The opinion expressed above is dated January 2023 and is liable to change. Latest available data as of publication date.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION \u2013 a simplified joint stock company with share capital of \u20ac14,487,500 &#8211; Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES &#8211; 75008 PARIS, FRANCE<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bond\/currency markets: attractive yields In the eurozone, the ECB speech on 15 December 2022 was more hawkish than expected, promising&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":18717,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[231],"tags":[2436,2099,1919,2435,1940,2434,1924,1922],"class_list":["post-19334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-outlook","tag-euro-zone-en","tag-europe-en","tag-gdp","tag-growth-peak","tag-inflation-en","tag-labor-market","tag-unemployment-rate","tag-united-states"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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