{"id":20615,"date":"2024-03-08T11:08:22","date_gmt":"2024-03-08T10:08:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/?p=20615"},"modified":"2024-03-08T11:08:22","modified_gmt":"2024-03-08T10:08:22","slug":"germany-no-sign-of-a-manufacturing-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/germany-no-sign-of-a-manufacturing-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"Germany: no sign of a manufacturing recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Chart of the Week<\/h2>\n<p>German factory orders, which were boosted by one-off factors from sectors such as aviation in December, fell back sharply in January. The monthly decline of 11.3% in January came in stark contrast to the 12% increase posted in December. Year on year, orders fell 6.0%.<\/p>\n<p>A similar picture emerges from less volatile data that strip out one-off items, where capital goods orders in particular are pointing downwards. Consumer goods orders have tumbled 8% over the last two months, having held up well previously.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-20618 \" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Capture0803en-300x142.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"865\" height=\"409\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Capture0803en-300x142.jpg 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Capture0803en-1024x483.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Capture0803en-768x362.jpg 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Capture0803en.jpg 1297w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 865px) 100vw, 865px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3><b>OUR <\/b><b>ANALYSIS<\/b><\/h3>\n<p>A geographical breakdown of data excluding volatile items reveals weakness in domestic orders and in foreign orders from outside the eurozone. Bucking the trend are orders from within the eurozone, which are proving more resilient.<\/p>\n<p>Although a breakdown of orders from outside the eurozone is not available, a parallel may be drawn with the clear decline in export volumes to China, following the upsurge in 2020.<\/p>\n<p>The new orders component of the manufacturing PMI index, which had rebounded to 44.3 in January from 32.6 in August, fell back to 40.7 in February. With the European Commission&#8217;s indicators also signalling ongoing weakness, a German manufacturing recovery still seems a long way off.<\/p>\n<p>***<\/p>\n<p>Written on March 08, 2024. This is not an investment advice. Opinions subject to change.<\/p>\n<p>See also: <a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/rate-cut-expectations-have-adjusted-sharply\/\">https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/rate-cut-expectations-have-adjusted-sharply\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>***<\/p>\n<p>This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION \u2013 a simplified joint stock company with share capital of \u20ac14,487,500 \u2013 Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES \u2013 75008 PARIS, FRANCE<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chart of the Week German factory orders, which were boosted by one-off factors from sectors such as aviation in December,&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":20616,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[2621,2661,1881],"class_list":["post-20615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week","tag-europ","tag-germany","tag-manufacturing-sector"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Germany: no sign of a manufacturing 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