{"id":22056,"date":"2025-03-28T10:40:07","date_gmt":"2025-03-28T09:40:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/?p=22056"},"modified":"2025-03-28T10:40:07","modified_gmt":"2025-03-28T09:40:07","slug":"the-impact-of-tariffs-on-us-inflation-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/the-impact-of-tariffs-on-us-inflation-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"The impact of tariffs on US inflation expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Chart of the Week<\/h2>\n<p>The cascade of tariff hike announcements has had an almost immediate impact on firms\u2019 and households\u2019 inflation expectations. Firms report that they could raise prices in response to increasing costs.<\/p>\n<p>Tariff hikes typically induce a one-time price shock and lead to a transitory rise in inflation, i.e. a bump in year-on-year price changes. But following years of high inflation, could this price shock have a lasting effect on expectations?<\/p>\n<p>Inflation swaps enable investors to hedge against future price fluctuations. Their shifts reflect market-based long-run inflation expectations adjusted for liquidity constraints.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-22057\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/GDS-ENG.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"867\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/GDS-ENG.png 867w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/GDS-ENG-300x121.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/GDS-ENG-768x310.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 867px) 100vw, 867px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3><b>OUR <\/b><b>ANALYSIS<\/b><\/h3>\n<p>Inflation expectations currently align with a temporary shock scenario. They indicate a one-year inflation forecast of 3% followed by stable inflation of around 2.5%, which is close to the level observed before Donald Trump won his second term.<\/p>\n<p>Alberto Musalem, president of the St. Louis Fed, has signalled a risk that the inflationary effects of tariff increases could prove sticky due to indirect effects. He shares this view with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who believes that an uptick in the market&#8217;s long-term inflation expectations would be a major red flag. As things stand, this is not the case.<\/p>\n<p>***<\/p>\n<p>Written on 28 March 2025. This is not an investment advice. Opinions subject to change.<\/p>\n<p>See also: https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/european-equities-regain-their-footing\/<\/p>\n<p>This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION \u2013 a simplified joint stock company with share capital of \u20ac14,487,500 \u2013 Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES \u2013 75008 PARIS, FRANCE<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chart of the Week The cascade of tariff hike announcements has had an almost immediate impact on firms\u2019 and households\u2019&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":22052,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[2454,1922],"class_list":["post-22056","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week","tag-inflationary-pressures","tag-united-states"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The impact of tariffs on US inflation 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