{"id":22947,"date":"2025-09-19T14:47:24","date_gmt":"2025-09-19T13:47:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/?p=22947"},"modified":"2025-09-19T14:47:24","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T13:47:24","slug":"china-a-k-shaped-evolution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/china-a-k-shaped-evolution\/","title":{"rendered":"China: A \u2018K-shaped\u2019 Evolution"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Chart of the Week<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"144\" data-end=\"582\">While the Chinese economy demonstrated resilience in the first half of the year, economic data from July and August painted a more concerning picture, with most indicators showing signs of weakness. The slowdown is primarily driven by a drop in domestic demand, including a decline in business investment. On the other hand, the export-driven manufacturing sector has remained relatively strong, even in the face of higher U.S. tariffs.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"584\" data-end=\"862\">This economic downturn stands in sharp contrast to the remarkable performance of China\u2019s equity markets. Since the start of the year, the MSCI China Index has surged 35%, fueled largely by excitement surrounding artificial intelligence following the pivotal \u201cDeepSeek\u201d moment.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"864\" data-end=\"1009\">What we\u2019re witnessing is a \u201cK-shaped\u201d trajectory between the economy and the markets\u2014a divergence that rarely offers reassurance for investors.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-22948\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Graph-EN.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1355\" height=\"537\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Graph-EN.jpg 1355w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Graph-EN-300x119.jpg 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Graph-EN-1024x406.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Graph-EN-768x304.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1355px) 100vw, 1355px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3><b>OUR <\/b><b>ANALYSIS<\/b><\/h3>\n<p data-start=\"1036\" data-end=\"1271\">The decline in business investment is no longer limited to the real estate sector; it\u2019s now impacting manufacturing as well. This may be a result of the authorities\u2019 efforts to curb industrial overcapacity and deflationary pressures.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1273\" data-end=\"1540\">Equity markets are somewhat optimistic about this approach, as higher prices could boost corporate profits. However, it\u2019s a delicate balance for the government, since this policy risks slowing growth in the short term while the goal is to maintain a 5% growth rate.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1542\" data-end=\"1779\">The authorities will probably adjust their strategies based on economic developments. Additionally, they are reportedly considering measures to prevent the market rally from turning into a bubble, similar to the one that burst in 2015.<\/p>\n<p>***<\/p>\n<p>Written on September 19 2025. Opinions subject to change.<\/p>\n<p>See also: <a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/banking-sector-still-moderate-valuations\/\">Banking Sector: Still Moderate Valuations<\/a><\/p>\n<p>This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION \u2013 a simplified joint stock company with share capital of \u20ac14,487,500 \u2013 Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES \u2013 75008 PARIS, FRANCE<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While the Chinese economy demonstrated resilience in the first half of the year, economic data from July and August painted a more concerning picture, with most indicators showing signs of weakness.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":22945,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[2602,2677,2516],"class_list":["post-22947","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week","tag-bank","tag-european","tag-fixed-income-market"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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