{"id":23962,"date":"2026-10-02T13:43:14","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T12:43:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/?p=23962"},"modified":"2026-10-02T13:43:14","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T12:43:14","slug":"the-rise-in-yields-is-not-a-global-debt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/the-rise-in-yields-is-not-a-global-debt\/","title":{"rendered":"The Rise in Yields Is Not a Global Debt"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Chart of the Week<\/h2>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">The recent rise in interest rates across most economies could, at first glance, reflect investor concerns about rising global debt.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">However, data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) do not point to any broad-based deterioration. The data cover public-sector, corporate and household debt across 44 countries. The BIS released its figures for the first quarter of 2026 in September, and the Institute of International Finance (IIF) data for the second quarter have shown no sign of acceleration. In advanced economies, total debt as a share of GDP is therefore close to its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-23963 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gds.en_.02.10.2026.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"862\" height=\"357\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gds.en_.02.10.2026.png 862w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gds.en_.02.10.2026-300x124.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/gds.en_.02.10.2026-768x318.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 862px) 100vw, 862px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3><b>OUR <\/b><b>ANALYSIS<\/b><\/h3>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Several observations emerge from the chart. First, this trend primarily reflects robust nominal growth, which mechanically improves the denominator of the debt-to-GDP ratio. Even though overall credit growth has increased, economic growth has also accelerated. The global economy is therefore not currently in a broad-based leveraging cycle similar to the early 2000s.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">A closer look reveals a more mixed picture. Recently, the private sector has tended to deleverage in most countries, while public debt has risen slightly.<\/p>\n<p dir=\"ltr\">Against this backdrop, the recent rise in interest rates is likely driven more by shifting expectations for monetary policy amid persistent inflationary pressures than by broad concerns over global debt dynamics. Economic research confirms that higher debt issuance volumes do exert upward pressure on yields, but the estimated effect is materially smaller than the rate moves observed recently.<\/p>\n<p>***<\/p>\n<p>Written on October 2, 2026. Opinions subject to change.<\/p>\n<p>See also: <a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/bond-markets-a-moderate-shock\/\">Bond Market: A Moderate Shock<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The data used in this document comes from external sources and is used in good faith, but no guarantee can be given as to its accuracy. This document is provided for informational purposes only. The analyses and\/or descriptions contained in this document should not be considered as an investment advice from Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS, nor a recommendation to buy or sell. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION S.A.S. &#8211; 25, RUE DE COURCELLES &#8211; 75008 PARIS<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The military intervention in Iran had a significant impact on markets this week, including fixed income.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":23965,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[2733,2436],"class_list":["post-23962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week","tag-euro","tag-euro-zone-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Rise in Yields Is Not a Global Debt<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The recent rise in interest rates across most economies could, at first glance, reflect investor concerns aboutrising global debt.\" 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