{"id":3347,"date":"2016-09-13T09:50:39","date_gmt":"2016-09-13T08:50:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/?p=3347"},"modified":"2016-09-13T10:04:52","modified_gmt":"2016-09-13T09:04:52","slug":"united-states-is-the-fed-trying-to-nudge-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/united-states-is-the-fed-trying-to-nudge-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"United States: Is the Fed trying to nudge expectations?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>CHART OF THE WEEK<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Recent weeks have seen the release of US data that could reduce the likelihood of a Fed rates increase.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Following the publication of an <b>underwhelming job report<\/b> (except for satisfactory job-creation levels) and a <b>sharp fall in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM indices<\/b>, the markets could have reflected a sharp reduction in the probability of rate increases. <b>However, recent comments by various Fed members appear to back the possibility of a rate increase at forthcoming meetings.<\/b><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-3349\" src=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Image1-Chart-of-the-week-37.png\" alt=\"image1-chart-of-the-week-37\" width=\"1090\" height=\"469\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Image1-Chart-of-the-week-37.png 1090w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Image1-Chart-of-the-week-37-300x129.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Image1-Chart-of-the-week-37-768x330.png 768w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Image1-Chart-of-the-week-37-1024x441.png 1024w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/09\/Image1-Chart-of-the-week-37-600x258.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1090px) 100vw, 1090px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b>OUR ANALYSIS<\/b><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b>The fall in ISM indices is surprising because the other indicators are not sending the same signal. <\/b>The PMI indices, despite being based on the same methodology as the ISM indices, posted much shallower falls: PMI respondents made no remarks confirming the ISM falls, nor were any such comments evident in other qualitative surveys, such as the Fed\u2019s Beige Book. In addition,<b> weekly jobless claims remain very low.<\/b> This shift is intriguing and heightens the need to watch the situation closely, but the most likely explanation is that this was an outlier and that the ISM indices will recover shortly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Monetary policy always has a relative component and the various central banks position themselves in relation to their counterparts, given the impact of their decisions on currencies. <b>Measures to loosen monetary policy by both the ECB and Bank of Japan had probably influenced the Fed\u2019s decision to delay its rate-increase cycle, however in a move that surprised market expectations, the ECB did not ease monetary policy on September 8<\/b><b>th<\/b><b>.<\/b><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Several FOMC members, some of whom are considered \u2018dovish\u2019 such as the president of the Boston Fed, have spoken in favour of a rate increase very shortly. If Lael Brainard\u2019s speech on September 12th has a similar slant, this would indeed be a strong signal.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b>These elements seem to show the US central bank\u2019s desire to raise its key rate, but with increased consideration for the impact of its actions on the financial markets. The resilience of emerging markets despite the rising probability of Fed action, the dollar\u2019s relative stability, and a stock market that is trading close to record highs, all open a window of opportunity that the Fed may want to take advantage of on September 21<\/b><b>st<\/b><b>.<\/b><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><i>The opinion expressed above is dated September 9<\/i><i>th<\/i><i>, 2016 and is liable to change.<\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CHART OF THE WEEK Recent weeks have seen the release of US data that could reduce the likelihood of a&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":2419,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3347","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>United States: Is the Fed trying to nudge expectations? &#8211; Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"United States: Is the Fed trying to nudge expectations? 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