{"id":6178,"date":"2017-05-02T10:05:26","date_gmt":"2017-05-02T09:05:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=6178\/"},"modified":"2019-04-19T09:08:59","modified_gmt":"2019-04-19T08:08:59","slug":"united-states-weak-first-quarter-growth-confirmed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/united-states-weak-first-quarter-growth-confirmed\/","title":{"rendered":"United-States: weak first-quarter growth confirmed"},"content":{"rendered":"

CHART OF THE WEEK<\/b><\/p>\n

US GDP growth has turned out to be weak at 0.7% year-on-year. ISM indices and other survey data suggested a stronger figure, but the result is no surprise given January and February\u2019s spending data (see Chart of the Week #14<\/a>), and it is near to consensus forecasts of 1.0%.<\/p>\n

Over the last seven years, weak first-quarter growth has been a common occurrence, standing at just 0.9% on average compared with 2.5% for the rest of the year, and despite seasonally adjusting the data.<\/b> There are various possible explanations for the pattern, including residual seasonality, yet the fact that the weakness is never due to the same demand components suggests an element of chance.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

OUR ANALYSIS<\/b><\/p>\n

This year’s weak first quarter is essentially due to spending and inventory levels. <\/b>Data for March suggest a slight upturn in spending which we believe should continue over the next few months, driven by positive momentum in personal income. The particularly negative effect of inventory changes can be expected to reverse in forthcoming quarters, and investment is currently recovering well. For these reasons, we expect to see growth pick up in the months ahead.<\/b><\/p>\n

The opinion expressed above is dated May 2nd, 2017, and is liable to change<\/em><\/p>\n

This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CHART OF THE WEEK US GDP growth has turned out to be weak at 0.7% year-on-year. ISM indices and other… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":6031,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week"],"yoast_head":"\nUnited-States: weak first-quarter growth confirmed – Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"United-States: weak first-quarter growth confirmed Chart of the week Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/united-states-weak-first-quarter-growth-confirmed\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" 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