{"id":8427,"date":"2018-10-05T14:47:16","date_gmt":"2018-10-05T13:47:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=8427"},"modified":"2019-04-19T09:08:30","modified_gmt":"2019-04-19T08:08:30","slug":"three-major-risk-factors-part-1-italy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/three-major-risk-factors-part-1-italy\/","title":{"rendered":"Three major risk factors – Part 1: Italy"},"content":{"rendered":"

Although exiting the euro is no longer on the cards, the government\u2019s programme lists several election promises (a flat tax, the citizens\u2019 income, and expensive pension reforms) entailing costs (approximately 6% of GDP) that will significantly swell the budget deficit (2.3% of GDP in 2017, see Figure 4).<\/p>\n

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Given the country\u2019s already high debt-to-GDP ratio (132% in 2017) the government\u2019s room for fiscal manoeuvre is extremely limited. Implementing the new programme, even partially, could call the sustainability of Italy\u2019s overall debt burden into question and the possibility of a deterioration in the situation cannot be ruled out.<\/p>\n

The new government\u2019s first serious test comes on 27 September when it is set to publish and present its stability programme to the Italian parliament, complete with the latest economic and budget forecasts.<\/p>\n

The government is currently focusing its communication on complying with the 3% ceiling. But the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact calls for bigger efforts, without which tensions with Europe could arise.<\/p>\n

The budget preparations caused tensions between Giovanni Tria, the Finance Minister and supporter of fiscal rectitude, and the M5S party. Further strain appeared within the coalition, as the two ruling parties hold divergent budget priorities.<\/p>\n

The nation\u2019s political situation remains fragile and it is highly unlikely that the 2019 budget will fully clarify uncertainties surrounding Italy\u2019s public finances, not least given the busy calendar of events ahead of the May 2019 European elections (see Figure 5).<\/p>\n

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This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Although exiting the euro is no longer on the cards, the government\u2019s programme lists several election promises (a flat tax,… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":8352,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[98],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8427","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nThree major risk factors - Part 1: Italy – Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Although exiting the euro is no longer on the cards, the government\u2019s programme lists several election promises...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/three-major-risk-factors-part-1-italy\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Three major risk factors - 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