{"id":8433,"date":"2018-10-05T15:49:27","date_gmt":"2018-10-05T14:49:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=8433"},"modified":"2019-04-19T09:08:28","modified_gmt":"2019-04-19T08:08:28","slug":"three-major-risk-factors-part-3-emerging-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/three-major-risk-factors-part-3-emerging-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Three major risk factors &#8211; Part 3: Emerging markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Following a significant growth recovery since mid 2016, the emerging markets are now showing signs of weakness. Confidence surveys are pointing downwards and currencies are struggling (see Figure 8).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-8483\" src=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2018\/10\/Graphi-8.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"735\" height=\"311\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-8.png 735w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-8-300x127.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-8-600x254.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 735px) 100vw, 735px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Falling currency values have spurred several central banks into raising rates, and dramatically so in the case of Turkey and Argentina. The growth impact for these two countries cannot be overlooked.<\/p>\n<p>Falls in both the Turkish lira and Argentinian peso reflect country-specific problems. However, they have occurred within a broader context of emerging markets weathering more challenging conditions, notably because developed economies are normalising monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p>The performance of emerging-market currencies indicates that investors are using fundamentals to discriminate between countries. The currencies of those countries carrying the greatest macroeconomic weaknesses and\/or political or geopolitical risks (Brazil, South Africa, Russia) have been affected worst (see Figure 9).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-8487\" src=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2018\/10\/Graphi-9.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"747\" height=\"336\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-9.png 747w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-9-300x135.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-9-600x270.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 747px) 100vw, 747px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Contagion to other countries cannot be ruled out, as the situation of the most fragile economies could lead to reduced portfolio exposure to emerging markets in general. Until now, flows had held up very well (see Figure 10).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-8491\" src=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2018\/10\/Graphi-10.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"722\" height=\"375\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-10.png 722w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-10-300x156.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-10-600x312.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 722px) 100vw, 722px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>To this scenario can be added potentially lower Chinese growth. Tighter credit conditions are weighing on infrastructure spending (see Figure 11), and protectionist measures are threatening exports. Although the authorities have announced support, it is moderate compared with 2015\u20132016 and could take several months to filter into the wider economy. That said, stronger stimulus measures could raise fears of a new debt cycle.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-8495\" src=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2018\/10\/Graphi-11.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"748\" height=\"344\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-11.png 748w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-11-300x138.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-11-600x276.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/?p=8436&amp;preview=true\">here<\/a> to read the rest of this article<br \/>\nClick <a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/?p=8421&amp;preview=true\">here<\/a> to learn more<\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Following a significant growth recovery since mid 2016, the emerging markets are now showing signs of weakness. Confidence surveys are&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":8360,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[98],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8433","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Three major risk factors - Part 3: Emerging markets &#8211; Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Following a significant growth recovery since mid 2016, the emerging markets are now showing signs of weakness.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/three-major-risk-factors-part-3-emerging-markets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Three major risk factors - 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