{"id":8439,"date":"2018-10-05T15:51:30","date_gmt":"2018-10-05T14:51:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=8439"},"modified":"2019-04-19T09:08:26","modified_gmt":"2019-04-19T08:08:26","slug":"monetary-policy-normalisation-continues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/monetary-policy-normalisation-continues\/","title":{"rendered":"Monetary policy normalisation continues"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The developed countries\u2019 central banks are moving towards less accommodative monetary policies, albeit at different speeds (see Figure 16). The major central banks\u2019 cumulative net asset purchases will soon turn negative, and for the first time since 2008, USD investors will be able to take no risk and beat inflation because the real yields on short-term US Treasury debt are now positive.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-8517\" src=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2018\/10\/Graphi-16.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"749\" height=\"364\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-16.png 749w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-16-300x146.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-16-600x292.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 749px) 100vw, 749px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>While maintaining a certain amount of flexibility, the Fed\u2019s path has been set.\u00a0 During his Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed the benefits of its current steady approach. Rate rises will be prudent but, according to the Chairman, if inflation expectations shift, then the Fed will act decisively. The Fed\u2019s current median rates estimates are for three quarter-point rises in 2019, although four such rises are not out of the question. Fed funds rate futures are only fully pricing in two rate rises (see Figure 17).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-8521\" src=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2018\/10\/Graphi-17.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"716\" height=\"333\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-17.png 716w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-17-300x140.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-17-600x279.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 716px) 100vw, 716px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>ECB policy normalisation should also entail a gradual rise in eurozone rates. In line with comments from ECB chief Mario Draghi indicating that there will be no rate rises before summer 2019, the markets are pricing the first rate increase for the very end of next year (see Figure 18). The expected pace of rate rises continues to be very gradual.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-8525\" src=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2018\/10\/Graphi-18.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"342\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-18.png 719w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-18-300x143.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-18-600x285.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 719px) 100vw, 719px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Uncertainties surrounding Italy have only slightly affected periphery-country and financial spreads (see Figure 19) indicating that investors are currently ring-fencing this specific risk.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-8529\" src=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2018\/10\/Graphi-19.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"751\" height=\"348\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-19.png 751w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-19-300x139.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-19-600x278.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 751px) 100vw, 751px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Financial debt spreads widened after Italy\u2019s 4 March 2018 elections but remained stable during a second wave of tensions in July concerning the country\u2019s debt levels.<\/p>\n<p>In terms of credit, high yield European spreads have widened slightly, but the fundamentals remain healthy (see Figure 20).<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-8533\" src=\"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/\/2018\/10\/Graphi-20.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"719\" height=\"340\" srcset=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-20.png 719w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-20-300x142.png 300w, https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Graphi-20-600x284.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 719px) 100vw, 719px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>If the Italy risk dissipates, strong long-term European fundamentals should see the euro appreciate against the dollar, along with additional support from a stabilised interest rate differential between Europe and the US.<\/p>\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/?p=8442&amp;preview=true\">here<\/a> to read the rest of this article<br \/>\nClick <a href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/?p=8421&amp;preview=true\">here<\/a> to learn more<\/p>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><span style=\"color: #333333; font-family: 'Arial',sans-serif; font-size: 8pt;\">This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The developed countries\u2019 central banks are moving towards less accommodative monetary policies, albeit at different speeds (see Figure 16). The&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":8417,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[98],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8439","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Monetary policy normalisation continues &#8211; Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The developed countries\u2019 central banks are moving towards less accommodative monetary policies, albeit at different speeds.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/monetary-policy-normalisation-continues\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monetary policy normalisation continues &#8211; 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