{"id":9032,"date":"2018-11-19T11:22:55","date_gmt":"2018-11-19T10:22:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=9032"},"modified":"2019-07-22T10:57:00","modified_gmt":"2019-07-22T09:57:00","slug":"germany-gdp-swerves-off-track","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/germany-gdp-swerves-off-track\/","title":{"rendered":"Germany : GDP swerves off track"},"content":{"rendered":"

CHART OF THE WEEK<\/strong><\/p>\n

Germany\u2019s third-quarter GDP (1) fell a sharp 0.8% on an annualised quarterly basis, the first fall in growth since the first quarter of 2015. The Federal Statistical Office of Germany has yet to release a breakdown of the numbers but did indicate that exports and consumption had a negative impact. On the positive side, investment remains in good shape.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

OUR ANALYSIS<\/strong><\/p>\n

While the PMI (2) indices have indeed fallen back in recent months, they are consistent with a growth rate close to 1.5\u20132.0%. Most of the third-quarter drop is likely due to WLTP (3)-related disruptions in the car-manufacturing sector.<\/p>\n

In fact, based on the industry\u2019s new vehicle data, a crude estimate puts the drop in car production at almost 20% compared with the previous quarter (not annualised). With the sector representing almost 5% of German GDP, this impact corresponds to the gap between Germany\u2019s growth trend in recent quarters (roughly 2%) and the latest third-quarter figure.<\/p>\n

October\u2019s numbers are showing a rebound in production as new vehicles progressively become WLTP compliant, and we should see fourth-quarter growth back on track.<\/p>\n

GDP (1): main economic index measuring the economic production inside a given country.<\/p>\n

PMI (2): Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index, an indicator of economic health for manufacturing and service sectors<\/p>\n

WLTP (3): Worldwide harmonised Light vehicles Test Procedures<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The opinion expressed above is dated November 15th 2018, and liable to change.<\/em><\/p>\n

This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CHART OF THE WEEK Germany\u2019s third-quarter GDP (1) fell a sharp 0.8% on an annualised quarterly basis, the first fall… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101016,"featured_media":9056,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[148,1274],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9032","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week","category-graphique-de-la-semaine-en"],"yoast_head":"\nGermany : GDP swerves off track – Tribune Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Germany\u2019s third-quarter GDP fell a sharp 0.8% on an annualised quarterly basis, the first fall in growth since the first quarter of 2015.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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