{"id":9704,"date":"2019-01-17T17:35:29","date_gmt":"2019-01-17T16:35:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lazardfreresgestion-tribune.fr\/?p=9704"},"modified":"2019-04-19T09:08:13","modified_gmt":"2019-04-19T08:08:13","slug":"china-disappointing-trade-figures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr\/en\/china-disappointing-trade-figures\/","title":{"rendered":"China: disappointing trade figures"},"content":{"rendered":"

Chart of the week<\/h2>\n

China\u2019s December trade figures showed both weaker exports and imports, further compounding November\u2019s disappointing data. While exports fell 4.4% year-on-year, imports were down 7.6% (US$ terms) compared with respective rises of 3.9% and 2.9% one month earlier.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

OUR ANALYSIS<\/b><\/p>\n

Is the slowdown in China\u2019s exports due to higher US customs duties? The answer is that they probably have been a contributory factor but are not the only one.<\/p>\n

Exports to the US have indeed slowed (-3.5% in December following +9.5% year-on-year), and the portion of exports to Hong Kong that is then sent on to the US has also stalled (-26.0% following +2.7% year-on-year).<\/p>\n

However, Chinese exports to various other geographic zones have also been contracting, reflecting a worldwide slowdown in demand in the past two months.<\/p>\n

The slowdown in imports is just as broad-based, suggesting softening domestic demand in China. December\u2019s economic data and the nation\u2019s fourth-quarter growth release on January 21st should provide some more information to complete the picture.<\/p>\n

The opinion expressed above is dated January 17th 2019, and liable to change.<\/em><\/p>\n

This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Fr\u00e8res Gestion SAS.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Chart of the week China\u2019s December trade figures showed both weaker exports and imports, further compounding November\u2019s disappointing data. 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