Part 1 : Short-term activity still dependent on health restrictions
This winter’s COVID-19 resurgence across Western countries is leading to tighter health restrictions and dragging on growth, even if the latest restrictions have been tailored to lessen their impact on the economy compared to those of last spring.
Europe has been most affected by these measures with the economic impact hitting the services sector worst. While the less severe restrictions in the United States have had a accordingly lower impact on growth, fourth-quarter consumption and employment figures indicate lost momentum. Economic conditions are more favourable in China, where health restrictions are minimal or implemented at a local level.
The chaos is likely to last for several more months, after which rising temperatures should limit the spread of the virus and vaccination campaigns should be more massive. Widespread vaccinations together with more of the population having been exposed to the virus should lead to restrictions being eased and growth accelerating in the second half of the year.
To download our Economic Outlook click here.
The opinion expressed above is dated January 2021 and is liable to change. Latest available data as of publication date.
This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION – a simplified joint stock company with share capital of €14,487,500 – Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES – 75008 PARIS, FRANCE
