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Banks: earnings prospects remain healthy
Chart of the Week Amid macroeconomic uncertainty, European banks’ earnings prospects through to 2027 look healthy according to recent data…
Decline in Oil Prices: A Support for Europe
Chart of the Week In February 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict led to a sharp rise in energy prices (oil, natural…
Investment grade bonds: supportive technicals
Chart of the Week The euro investment grade primary market has been particularly upbeat so far this year. Excluding financial…
The impact of tariffs on US inflation expectations
Chart of the Week The cascade of tariff hike announcements has had an almost immediate impact on firms’ and households’…
European Equities Regain Their Footing
Chart of the Week In 2024, US equities significantly outperformed other market segments. Since the end of February, the trend…
Economic uncertainty: An unprecedented price scissors effect between Europe and the United States
Chart of the Week With an average of two executive orders per working day, the U.S. administration is moving full…
High Yield proves resilient to rising interest rates
Chart of the Week Since the beginning of February 2025, some tensions have emerged in European bond markets. On 5…
Economic & market outlook – January 2025
While some aspects of the new US administration’s program could boost investor optimism, others are likely to have a negative…
Macroeconomic focus – February 2025
Robust economy and Trump policies could derail inflation Donald Trump’s inauguration on 20 January was a historic event. Since then, 65…
US inflation: fears resurface among consumers
Chart of the Week The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey includes questions on inflation expectations. In February, following a sharp…
Small caps: are the planets set to align?
Chart of the Week Companies with small market capitalisations have a track record of outperforming larger caps during central bank…
United States: is it possible to reduce federal spending?
Chart of the Week Among Donald Trump’s many announcements since his election, the announcement of the creation of a new…
AT1 Bonds: An unprecedented supply surge
Chart of the Week In September, the primary market for AT1 bonds saw an unprecedented supply surge, with issuers raising over…
Freight: an inflationary risk is reappearing
Chart of the Week The latest news about inflation in the United States indicates that things are moving in the…
Which factors have boosted European banking profits?
Chart of the Week In 2023, many European banks posted excellent earnings with profits often reaching levels last seen in…
Macroeconomic focus – June 2024
Mixed signals Having slowed sharply in April, job creations recovered more than expected in May, reaching 272,000 according to the…
Americans have never flown so much
Chart of the Week While the latest retail sales figures fell short of expectations and raised questions about the financial…
Nordics escape budget concerns
Chart of the Week France’s national debt is in the spotlight following the country’s ratings downgrade to AA- by Standard…
European high yield: a buoyant primary market
Chart of the Week Monthly European high yield bond issuance has reached its highest level since 2021. So far this…
Euro zone: wage growth remains strong in Q1
Chart of the Week The ECB has just published its estimate of the progression in European wages negotiated by collective…
Tokyo to the rescue?
Chart of the Week The yen has had a turbulent week against the US dollar. On Monday 29 April, the…
China: Low Bond Yields Buck The Global Trend
Chart of the Week Long-term government bond yields are rising across the globe except in China, where declines since the…
Europe and US policy paths to diverge
Chart of the Week According to recent data, the economic gap between Europe and the US is growing. In Europe,…
Eurozone: composite PMI returns to growth
Chart of the Week March’s final PMI figures included a composite reading revised upwards from 49.9 to 50.3. In December,…
Cocoa: a spectacular price surge
Chart of the Week Since the end of 2023, cocoa prices have skyrocketed. From USD 1,900 per tonne in March last…
Japan: the end of an era
Chart of the Week The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has lifted its policy rate to between zero and 0.1%. The…
European Banking Sector in Good Health
Chart of the Week After 13 years of underperformance, marked by the financial crisis of 2008 and the eurozone debt…
Germany: no sign of a manufacturing recovery
Chart of the Week German factory orders, which were boosted by one-off factors from sectors such as aviation in December,…
Rate cut expectations have adjusted sharply
Chart of the Week Since the start of the year, market rates have risen across all maturities following a fall…
Eurozone: inflation remains lofty
Chart of the Week Eurostat has just published its final version of January’s eurozone price index. On a rolling 12-month…
Shipping disruption: troubled waters in the Suez Canal
Chart of the Week Shipping costs between Asia and Europe have risen sharply in recent months. From around USD 1,200 per…
Spain: strong growth as the economy catches up
Chart of the Week While the GDP of the entire Eurozone has been struggling since the third quarter of 2022,…
Banks: December sees sharp rise in deposits
Chart of the Week Eurozone bank deposits rose sharply in December 2023, hitting record highs last seen during the Covid…
2023 in review: the Fixed Income market rebound
Chart of the Week In 2023, European bonds delivered positive performance across the board. The high yield segment outperformed its…
Equity markets recap: 2023, a year of surprises
Chart of the Week 2023 saw equity markets recover significantly from the declines of 2022. In both the US and…
Real Estate Strikes Back
Chart of the Week Falling interest rates since the end of October have boosted real estate stocks in recent weeks.…
Greece Regains Investment Grade Status
Chart of the Week October saw S&P reinstate Greece to its former investment-grade glory. The rating agency upgraded the country’s…
Eurozone: what is happening with productivity?
Chart of the Week The first estimates of eurozone activity figures for the third quarter have been published, showing a…
Third-quarter earnings: a mixed bag
Chart of the Week So far, two thirds of the companies included in the Stoxx Europe 600 index have reported their third-quarter 2023…
United-States: A disconnect between existing and new home sales
Chart of the Week An unprecedented disconnect has appeared in the US housing market. Year on year, previously owned home…
Macroeconomic focus – October 2023
United States: pockets of resilience Household spending and the labour market were pockets of resilience for the US economy according…
Yield curve steepening: a technical indicator of recession
Chart of the Week Monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve since the start of 2022 has prompted a sharp rise…
United States: tougher credit standards for small businesses
Chart of the Week This year’s spate of US bank failures (SVB, First Republic and Signature) triggered widespread concern over…
Economic outlook – September 2023
The US economy has proven remarkably resilient since it displayed signs of deterioration last spring, and the pace of inflation…
Rising Interest Rates Aligned with Oil Price Variation
Chart of the Week Since May, long-term US interest rates have been increasing. The 10-year rate rose from 3.4% in…
Small Caps : the highest discount for 20 years
Chart of the Week Small Caps (defined as companies with market capitalisations below €2bn) are in positive territory year to…
Eurozone: a disconnect between productivity and profits
Chart of the Week The latest earnings season has delivered some positive surprises, with many listed companies posting their highest…
Japan: a very controlled rise in rates
Chart of the Week Since last year, Japan has emerged from a long phase of “zero inflation”, or even deflation,…
United States: can growth withstand a steeply negative credit impulse?
Chart of the Week Credit impulse is a concept first introduced by Michael Biggs following the 2008 financial crisis. At…
Eurozone: No rebound in retail sales
Chart of the Week After having fallen sharply since the spring of 2022, retail sales excluding cars remained flat in…
