Chart of the week
The last six months have seen the US unemployment rate fall by 2 percentage points, from 5.9% in June to 3.9% in December. This is the fastest rate of decline in more than 70 years, excluding the period following spring 2020. The previous record was set in 1983 with a drop of 1.7 points in six months, but at the time the unemployment rate was over 10%.
OUR ANALYSIS
The speed of this decline confirms a very tight labor market. Judging by the trajectory of continuing claims in recent weeks, this trend should continue. At the same time, job postings remain strong. Against this backdrop, upward pressure on wages is unlikely to ease.
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The following opinion was written on January 21, 2022 and is susceptible of changing.
*Sources : Bloomberg, and calculation from Lazard Frères Gestion
As of : January 21, 2022
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