Chart of the Week
The French national statistics office (INSEE) released its October business confidence indicators this week. The data are based on responses collected between September 26 and October 20, mostly before October 10 — in other words, during the brief period when Sébastien Lecornu’s first government was being formed, and then quickly collapsed.
Despite the highly unsettled political climate, the index edged up from 96 to 97, nearly matching its highest level since October 2024.
OUR ANALYSIS
The impact of France’s political crisis was largely absorbed back in June 2024, when the National Assembly was dissolved. The business confidence index, which had been close to 100, dropped to 94 at that time, then recovered slightly during the Olympic Games before stabilizing around 96 ever since.
In manufacturing, this month’s uptick was driven by a rebound in the “transport equipment excluding automobiles” segment. Retail trade is benefiting from stronger order expectations at car dealerships. Elsewhere, trends were more mixed, with several sectors showing declines. Overall, France’s employment outlook is improving slightly, but from a very low base.
These figures reinforce our view: most of the impact of the political crisis on economic activity was felt last year. So far, recent developments have not triggered any further deterioration in business confidence or activity.
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Written on October 24 2025. Opinions subject to change.
See also: Exploring the Diverse Landscape of High Yield Issuers
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