Chart of the Week
Since 2022, following the seizure of Russian assets, central banks – particularly those in emerging markets – have increased their gold purchases to reduce the dominance of the U.S. dollar in their reserves. While retail investors were initially absent from this trend, they began turning to precious‑metal‑backed financial instruments from 2025 onward. According to Bloomberg data, these instruments attracted USD 95 billion in inflows in 2025, while they still recorded outflows in 2024.
In 2025, retail investors bought more gold than central banks. Their purchases of coins and bars reached a 12‑year high of 1,374 tons, compared with 863 tons for central banks, whose buying pace slowed relative to 2024. Gold‑backed ETFs now account for the equivalent of 4,000 tons of gold. For silver, ETP holdings climbed to nearly 35,000 tons by mid‑2025.
OUR ANALYSIS
Unlike central banks, whose investment horizons span decades, retail investors are highly sensitive to movements in the gold price: the same enthusiasm that drives buying on the way up can reverse sharply when prices fall. This historic wave of retail inflows could make the market more fragile and raise the risk of a bubble at a time when several potential triggers for a correction are already present – a possible decline in geopolitical risk, the appointment of a Fed Chair less inclined to expand the balance sheet, and government actions aimed at curbing speculation.
Silver illustrates how quickly such corrections can unfold. Between its peak of USD 120.9 on December 29, 2025 and its 2026 low of USD 67.2 on February 6, the metal fell as much as 44% in just over a month, compared with a 19% drop for gold. It is also worth recalling that the 1980 silver crash wiped out 65% of its value between the early 1980s and mid‑1982.
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Written on February 13 2026. Opinions subject to change.
See also: Japan: Entering a New Economic Era
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