The developed countries’ central banks are moving towards less accommodative monetary policies, albeit at different speeds (see Figure 16). The …
Category: Analysis
Meanwhile, the US economic cycle is maturing
In the United States, our analysis of the economic cycle sees the expansion continuing for at least another 15 months.…
Three major risk factors – Part 3: Emerging markets
Following a significant growth recovery since mid 2016, the emerging markets are now showing signs of weakness. Confidence surveys are …
Three major risk factors – Part 2: Trade Wars
America’s hardening trade policy stance has spawned a series of protectionist announcements, some of which have been implemented (see Figure …
Three major risk factors – Part 1: Italy
Although exiting the euro is no longer on the cards, the government’s programme lists several election promises (a flat tax, …
No concrete evidence of economic slowdown
Despite uncertainty, confidence surveys are reporting levels in line with global growth of about 4%. The figure is higher than …
