Economic uncertainty: An unprecedented price scissors effect between Europe and the United States

Chart of the Week

With an average of two executive orders per working day, the U.S. administration is moving full steam ahead with implementing its agenda.

Beyond the rolling back of measures taken by the previous administration, economic players must also contend with the actions of the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which are reshaping relations between citizens and institutions.

OUR ANALYSIS

These concerns are reflected in survey results and the Baker, Bloom & Davis Economic Uncertainty Index, which has reached its highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

While they call for vigilance, these concerns don’t automatically translate into a slowdown in business activity. In fact, economic indicators and employment data—such as new unemployment claims holding steady at a favorable level of around 220,000 per week—remain strong and support the outlook for positive growth in the U.S. economy.

Europe, on the other hand, is experiencing a notable recovery after the end of 2024, which was marked by political uncertainty in France and Germany. This rebound is largely due to the ability of moderate parties to remain in power and the continent’s unified focus on revitalizing defense capabilities.

***

Written on 14 March 2025. This is not an investment advice. Opinions subject to change.

See also: https://latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr/en/high-yield-proves-resilient-to-rising-interest-rates/

This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION – a simplified joint stock company with share capital of €14,487,500 – Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES – 75008 PARIS, FRANCE