Chart of the Week
Most Asian economies have now released their fourth‑quarter growth figures, apart from India, which will report on February 27. Overall, the results beat expectations.
Taiwan was the clear standout, posting year‑on‑year growth above 12%, supported by strong AI‑related exports. This is particularly notable given that Taiwan represents almost 20% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. South Korea, by contrast, delivered a more muted performance. Although it is also benefiting from the AI cycle, exports make up a smaller share of its GDP than in Taiwan, and much of their recent growth has been driven by price effects – especially in memory chips. While this boosts corporate revenues, it does not, by definition, translate into higher GDP volumes.
OUR ANALYSIS
Asian economies continue to show resilience, with January PMI readings suggesting that this momentum has continued since the start of 2026. Much of this strength is being driven by the AI investment cycle, which is providing a powerful boost to countries positioned at the upstream end of the value chain, such as Taiwan. The earnings season has reinforced this picture: US hyperscalers have again raised their capital‑spending plans for 2026, now projecting growth of about 65%, indicating that this support is likely to persist through the coming year.
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Written on February 20 2026. Opinions subject to change.
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