Chart of the Week
A few weeks later than expected, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its estimate of U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025. The figure came in below expectations, mainly because the government shutdown had a larger‑than‑anticipated impact on the direct contribution of public spending. Otherwise, the release confirmed several ongoing trends, including the very strong concentration of investment in areas tied to artificial intelligence, while residential investment is down 3.7% year‑over‑year.
The chart below shows that the positive contribution from nonresidential investment comes entirely from the three AI‑related components (data centers, IT equipment, and software). All other categories of investment have been on a downward trend for nearly two years.
OUR ANALYSIS
These trends are set to continue in early 2026. In their latest quarterly results, hyperscalers once again increased their investment plans for the year. Beyond that, business‑investment surveys are better than their 2025 average, though still at fairly low levels.
These figures show how solid headline numbers can mask very uneven underlying dynamics. It is also worth keeping in mind that the strong contribution from AI‑related investment has come alongside a sharp increase in imported equipment, which dampens the overall impact on economic growth.
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Written on February 27 2026. Opinions subject to change.
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