Part 2 : brisk post-lockdown rebound
The post-lockdown rebound is occurring at a faster and stronger rate than consensus expectations. Surveys show a marked rebound over the last three months in both developed and emerging markets. However, following such an extraordinary period, it is difficult to equate this survey data to any precise growth rate.
As of : September 2020
While there is real momentum driving the recovery, the pace of upturn is uneven. Generally speaking, and as can be seen in the United States, while total consumption is in decline, the same cannot be said for all its components. The consumption of goods has in fact rebounded, and that of consumer durables in particular. In contrast, spending on services, a major component of total consumption, still falls short of previous highs.
In France, certain sectors are recovering rapidly, with consumer durables even benefitting from a catch-up effect. Latest INSEE estimates show activity for July reaching 95% of normal levels.
In Europe, as things stand, it looks very likely that the economy will return to 97% of pre-shutdown levels by the end of the year.
As of : September 2020
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The opinion expressed above is dated September 2020 and is liable to change. Latest available data is used.
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