First indications of the Brexit impact


This month’s preliminary estimates of PMI indices are an opportunity to begin measuring the impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU.

Image1 graphe n°29


It seems that the impact is presently concentrated in the UK, with only very moderate spillover to the Eurozone. The UK composite PMI fell from 52.4 to 47.7, in line with an economic slowdown in the region of 1.5-2.0% on an annualised basis. By contrast, the Eurozone composite PMI dipped just 0.2 basis points to 52.9, in line with growth of around 1.5%.

The opinion expressed above is dated July 22nd, 2016 and is liable to change.

This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS.