Fixed Income Markets: Rates Rise Again

Chart of the week

The outbreak of war in Ukraine caused rates to fall in the safest segments of the bond market from February 24 to March 4. This trend has been reversed since March 7, leading to a resumption of the upward movement initiated in 2021. Sovereign 10-year rates have thus returned to their highest levels since 2018 in Europe, and since 2019 in the United States.

OUR ANALYSIS

Economic uncertainties related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict initially led investors to anticipate a more moderate monetary tightening by central banks. In Europe, expectations of an ECB rate hike in 2022 have momentarily waned. In the United States, the arrival of the war led the Fed to raise its rates by only 25 basis points in March, compared to the 50 basis points expected before the conflict.

Since then, the situation has been reversed as energy (oil, gas) and food (wheat, corn) prices have risen sharply. These movements reinforce the inflationary outlook despite already high levels: in February, 12-month inflation reached 7.9% in the United States and 5.9% in the Eurozone. Investors are therefore once again expecting rapid monetary normalization by central banks. The majority of them anticipate at least 8 rate hikes (of 25 basis points each) by the Fed in 2022, and 1 to 2 rate hikes by the ECB this year after the end of quantitative easing.

See also: https://latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr/en/risk-free-bonds-historic-losses-in-the-united-states/

***

The opinion expressed above is dated March 25, 2022 and is subject to change

*Sources : Bloomberg and calculation from Lazard Frères Gestion

As of : March 25, 2022

This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION – a simplified joint stock company with share capital of €14,487,500 – Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES – 75008 PARIS, FRANCE


-- PDF --