CHART OF THE WEEK
Preliminary estimates released last week indicated fourth quarter 2016 Eurozone GDP rising at 2.0% on an annualised quarterly basis. This faster growth rate is consistent with PMI index readings that had picked up at the end of the year.
The healthier picture is being confirmed by an improving unemployment rate, that have gone down more quickly in the past four months and now stands at 9.6%, a record low since 2009.
OUR ANALYSIS
PMI indices are posting levels consistent with 2.0% growth for the first quarter of 2017. Consensus expectations for overall 2017 growth have been revised upwards from 1.4% to 1.5% in the last month. If the trend suggested by the PMI indices continues, then further upward revisions to growth forecasts are likely in the coming months.
The opinion expressed above is dated February 6th, 2017 and is liable to change.
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