Chart of the Week
With the US unemployment rate holding steady at a historically low 4.2%, job creation remains strong. In May alone, nearly 140,000 jobs were added in the non-farm private sector, enough to keep unemployment from rising. However, households are increasingly worried about the state of the labor market.
OUR ANALYSIS
Household anxiety has often been a precursor to an actual increase in the unemployment rate. Unlike employment statistics, which are generally lagging indicators, surveys can sometimes be slightly ahead of the curve.
While perceptions don’t always predict reality, several data points suggest caution, aligning with the survey findings. Over the past two months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised previous job creation figures downward. The four-week average of unemployment claims has risen above 245,000 per week. Lastly, continuing claims, which measure the number of job seekers over time, have increased sharply since early May, nearing the 2 million mark.
***
Written on 27 june 2025. Opinions subject to change.
See also: Quantitative Easing: Commercial banks take over from the ECB
This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION – a simplified joint stock company with share capital of €14,487,500 – Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES – 75008 PARIS, FRANCE
