Chart of the week
China’s vaccination rate has picked up markedly in recent weeks. Data from ourworldindata.com indicate that as of June 3rd, the number of daily administered doses averaged close to 20 million on a rolling seven-day basis, which is the equivalent of 1.4% of China’s population and more than the rest of the world combined (13.6 million). As a percentage of the population, the daily injection rate now exceeds the previous high reached mid-April in the United States. In total, nearly 723 million doses have been administered in China.
OUR ANALYSIS
A breakdown of the first and second doses is not available, and it is impossible to infer how many people have been vaccinated given that each person could have received either one or two doses. If those inoculated have received two doses, then at least 25% of the population has been vaccinated and if they have all received one dose, the figure could be as high as 50%. If we assume the two-dose hypothesis and a stable injection rate, then China may have fully vaccinated its entire population by autumn 2021.
This is reassuring news in terms of the sustainability of China’s economic recovery, with the main risk then being how effective the Chinese vaccines are against the Covid-19 variants. Real-life data and clinical trials in Latin America suggest that the Sinovac vaccine is effective against the Brazilian variants. However, access to this data tends to be more restricted than for the vaccines being used in Western countries, which also rely on different types of technology.
See also: https://latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr/en/united-states-desperately-seeking-workers/
The following opinion was written on June 4th 2021 and is susceptible of changing.
Sources : OurWorldIndata and Lazard Frères Gestion, June 3rd 2021
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