Chart of the week
While the health situation is deteriorating in countries such as India, there are no signs of a virus resurgence in either Israel or the United Kingdom, where a significant proportion of the population has been vaccinated. According to ourworldindata.com, as of 19 April about 62% of the population in Israel and 49% in the UK had received at least one vaccine dose, compared to 8% in India. The graph below puts the spotlight on recent short-term dynamics for Israel and the UK.
Going forward, we believe the key question for markets is whether Covid inoculation will be successful in the longer term. This implies monitoring the data from studies on new variants and tracking how the pandemic plays out in countries considered as having pulled through. Any resurgence, which would be a very negative signal indeed, would therefore be identified early on.
As long as the trend lines in Israel and the UK do not turn back up, the markets should be able to withstand a virus resurgence in poorly protected countries due to the expectation that as vaccination rates increase, case numbers will fall.
See also: https://latribune.lazardfreresgestion.fr/en/united-states-retail-sales-rebound-sharply-in-march/
The following opinion was written on April 22nd 2021 and is susceptible of changing.
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