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Euro zone: wage growth remains strong in Q1

Chart of the Week The ECB has just published its estimate of the progression in European wages negotiated by collective … Continue reading Euro zone: wage growth remains strong in Q1

Tokyo to the rescue?

Chart of the Week The yen has had a turbulent week against the US dollar. On Monday 29 April, the … Continue reading Tokyo to the rescue?

China: Low Bond Yields Buck The Global Trend

Chart of the Week Long-term government bond yields are rising across the globe except in China, where declines since the … Continue reading China: Low Bond Yields Buck The Global Trend

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Euro zone: wage growth remains strong in Q1

Chart of the Week The ECB has just published its estimate of the progression in European wages negotiated by collective … Continue reading Euro zone: wage growth remains strong in Q1

Tokyo to the rescue?

Chart of the Week The yen has had a turbulent week against the US dollar. On Monday 29 April, the … Continue reading Tokyo to the rescue?

China: Low Bond Yields Buck The Global Trend

Chart of the Week Long-term government bond yields are rising across the globe except in China, where declines since the … Continue reading China: Low Bond Yields Buck The Global Trend

Europe and US policy paths to diverge

Chart of the Week According to recent data, the economic gap between Europe and the US is growing. In Europe, … Continue reading Europe and US policy paths to diverge

Eurozone: composite PMI returns to growth

Chart of the Week March’s final PMI figures included a composite reading revised upwards from 49.9 to 50.3. In December, … Continue reading Eurozone: composite PMI returns to growth

Cocoa: a spectacular price surge

Chart of the Week Since the end of 2023, cocoa prices have skyrocketed. From USD 1,900 per tonne in March last … Continue reading Cocoa: a spectacular price surge

Japan: the end of an era

Chart of the Week The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has lifted its policy rate to between zero and 0.1%. The … Continue reading Japan: the end of an era

European Banking Sector in Good Health

Chart of the Week After 13 years of underperformance, marked by the financial crisis of 2008 and the eurozone debt … Continue reading European Banking Sector in Good Health

Germany: no sign of a manufacturing recovery

Chart of the Week German factory orders, which were boosted by one-off factors from sectors such as aviation in December, … Continue reading Germany: no sign of a manufacturing recovery

Rate cut expectations have adjusted sharply

Chart of the Week Since the start of the year, market rates have risen across all maturities following a fall … Continue reading Rate cut expectations have adjusted sharply

Eurozone: inflation remains lofty

Chart of the Week Eurostat has just published its final version of January’s eurozone price index. On a rolling 12-month … Continue reading Eurozone: inflation remains lofty

Shipping disruption: troubled waters in the Suez Canal

Chart of the Week Shipping costs between Asia and Europe have risen sharply in recent months. From around USD 1,200 per … Continue reading Shipping disruption: troubled waters in the Suez Canal

Spain: strong growth as the economy catches up

Chart of the Week While the GDP of the entire Eurozone has been struggling since the third quarter of 2022, … Continue reading Spain: strong growth as the economy catches up

Banks: December sees sharp rise in deposits

Chart of the Week Eurozone bank deposits rose sharply in December 2023, hitting record highs last seen during the Covid … Continue reading Banks: December sees sharp rise in deposits

2023 in review: the Fixed Income market rebound

Chart of the Week In 2023, European bonds delivered positive performance across the board. The high yield segment outperformed its … Continue reading 2023 in review: the Fixed Income market rebound

Equity markets recap: 2023, a year of surprises

Chart of the Week 2023 saw equity markets recover significantly from the declines of 2022. In both the US and … Continue reading Equity markets recap: 2023, a year of surprises

Real Estate Strikes Back

Chart of the Week Falling interest rates since the end of October have boosted real estate stocks in recent weeks. … Continue reading Real Estate Strikes Back

Greece Regains Investment Grade Status

Chart of the Week October saw S&P reinstate Greece to its former investment-grade glory. The rating agency upgraded the country’s … Continue reading Greece Regains Investment Grade Status

Eurozone: what is happening with productivity?

Chart of the Week The first estimates of eurozone activity figures for the third quarter have been published, showing a … Continue reading Eurozone: what is happening with productivity?

Third-quarter earnings: a mixed bag

Chart of the Week So far, two thirds of the companies included in the Stoxx Europe 600 index have reported their third-quarter 2023 … Continue reading Third-quarter earnings: a mixed bag

United-States: A disconnect between existing and new home sales

Chart of the Week An unprecedented disconnect has appeared in the US housing market. Year on year, previously owned home … Continue reading United-States: A disconnect between existing and new home sales

Macroeconomic focus – October 2023

United States: pockets of resilience Household spending and the labour market were pockets of resilience for the US economy according … Continue reading Macroeconomic focus – October 2023

Yield curve steepening: a technical indicator of recession

Chart of the Week Monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve since the start of 2022 has prompted a sharp rise … Continue reading Yield curve steepening: a technical indicator of recession

United States: tougher credit standards for small businesses

Chart of the Week This year’s spate of US bank failures (SVB, First Republic and Signature) triggered widespread concern over … Continue reading United States: tougher credit standards for small businesses

Economic outlook – September 2023

The US economy has proven remarkably resilient since it displayed signs of deterioration last spring, and the pace of inflation … Continue reading Economic outlook – September 2023

Rising Interest Rates Aligned with Oil Price Variation

Chart of the Week Since May, long-term US interest rates have been increasing. The 10-year rate rose from 3.4% in … Continue reading Rising Interest Rates Aligned with Oil Price Variation

Small Caps : the highest discount for 20 years

Chart of the Week Small Caps (defined as companies with market capitalisations below €2bn) are in positive territory year to … Continue reading Small Caps : the highest discount for 20 years

Eurozone: a disconnect between productivity and profits

Chart of the Week The latest earnings season has delivered some positive surprises, with many listed companies posting their highest … Continue reading Eurozone: a disconnect between productivity and profits

Japan: a very controlled rise in rates

Chart of the Week Since last year, Japan has emerged from a long phase of “zero inflation”, or even deflation, … Continue reading Japan: a very controlled rise in rates

United States: can growth withstand a steeply negative credit impulse?

Chart of the Week Credit impulse is a concept first introduced by Michael Biggs following the 2008 financial crisis. At … Continue reading United States: can growth withstand a steeply negative credit impulse?

Eurozone: No rebound in retail sales

Chart of the Week After having fallen sharply since the spring of 2022, retail sales excluding cars remained flat in … Continue reading Eurozone: No rebound in retail sales

Europe: renewed pressure on gas prices

Chart of the Week Having reached heights of over €300/MWh in August 2022, European month-ahead gas prices tumbled back to … Continue reading Europe: renewed pressure on gas prices

Semiconductors: driving artificial intelligence

Chart of the Week Since its low point reached in October 2022, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, made up of the … Continue reading Semiconductors: driving artificial intelligence

S&P 500: anatomy of the year-to-date rise

Chart of the Week Although it has risen less than the European market since the start of the year, the … Continue reading S&P 500: anatomy of the year-to-date rise

The Three Nymphs: restoration of the sculpture by Aristide Maillol

Nymphs of the Prairie, or The Three Nymphs, is a sculpture by Aristide Maillol first exhibited at the 1937 World’s … Continue reading The Three Nymphs: restoration of the sculpture by Aristide Maillol

United States: small businesses expect tighter credit conditions

Chart of the Week The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) conducts a monthly survey to gauge small business optimism … Continue reading United States: small businesses expect tighter credit conditions

AT1 hybrid debt: an improving risk-return profile?

Chart of the Week Market volatility in the banking sector has been high in recent weeks, notably for Additional Tier … Continue reading AT1 hybrid debt: an improving risk-return profile?

Exceptional volatility of short-term rates

Chart of the Week Since the beginning of the year, investors have been switching from one economic scenario to another: … Continue reading Exceptional volatility of short-term rates

Analysis: Silicon Valley Bank’s Bankruptcy

Abstract: On March 10, 2023, the financial markets were affected by the receivership of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), now … Continue reading Analysis: Silicon Valley Bank’s Bankruptcy

United States: Markets adjust to “higher for longer” rates

Chart of the Week At his semi-annual hearing before both houses of the US Congress, Jerome Powell’s tone on the … Continue reading United States: Markets adjust to “higher for longer” rates

United States: towards a stabilization of the housing market?

Chart of the Week For the second month in a row, the NAHB* Homebuilder Confidence Index is rising above expectations. … Continue reading United States: towards a stabilization of the housing market?

ECB speech: investors shift their initial perception

Chart of the Week On 2 February 2023, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key interest rates by 50 bps … Continue reading ECB speech: investors shift their initial perception

Market outlook – January 2023

Bond/currency markets: attractive yields In the eurozone, the ECB speech on 15 December 2022 was more hawkish than expected, promising … Continue reading Market outlook – January 2023

Economic outlook – January 2023

Developments in the US economy will have an impact not only in the US, but across the globe. While the … Continue reading Economic outlook – January 2023

US pension funds back in surplus

Chart of the Week For the first time in more than a dozen years, U.S. pension funds have returned to … Continue reading US pension funds back in surplus

2022 in review: value stocks outperform growth

Chart of the Week 2022 saw equity and bond markets fall in lockstep. The Euro Stoxx Net Return Index fell … Continue reading 2022 in review: value stocks outperform growth

Fixed income in 2022

Chart of the Week 2022 saw increasing interest rates and spreads result in negative bond market performance across all segments … Continue reading Fixed income in 2022

Markets doubtful of the Fed

Chart of the Week The Federal Reserve increased the federal funds rate by 50 bps at its gathering on 14 December. The … Continue reading Markets doubtful of the Fed

High yield: higher yields lie ahead

Chart of the Week In just one year, yield to maturity (YTM) levels for European high yield rose from 3% … Continue reading High yield: higher yields lie ahead

Equities: caution remains the watchword

Chart of the Week Equity markets have recovered sharply since the start of October. Having hit a low point on … Continue reading Equities: caution remains the watchword