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Bond Markets: A Moderate Shock
The military intervention in Iran had a significant impact on markets this week, including fixed income.
United States: Investment Now Dominated by AI‑Related Sectors
A few weeks later than expected, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its estimate of U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025.
Asia’s Momentum Stays Strong
Most Asian economies have now released their fourth‑quarter growth figures, apart from India, which will report on February 27. Overall, the results beat expectations.
Gold & Silver: Bubble Warning Signs Are Flashing
Since 2022, following the seizure of Russian assets, central banks – particularly those in emerging markets – have increased their gold purchases to reduce the dominance of the U.S. dollar in their reserves.
Japan: Entering a New Economic Era
Japan enters the year amid a busy political calendar.
German Industry Could Be Making Its Comeback
After years of stagnation, Germany’s manufacturing sector may finally be moving toward a turnaround.
Macroeconomic Focus – December 2025
In December, a few days after the Fed’s last meeting, the Q3 GDP figures were published, confirming robust growth (+4.3%) just before the government shutdown began.
European High Yield: Matching Equities Over the Long Run
As of November 30, 2025, the European high-yield segment is up 4.9%, on track for a third consecutive year of gains after returns of 8.5% in 2024 and 12.1% in 2023.
Macroeconomic Focus – November 2025
The U.S. economy is expanding at a more moderate pace than in recent years—1.5% in H1 2025—but has managed to withstand two major shocks in 2025.
United States : Jobless Claims Remain Stable
Since trade tensions eased in April 2025, the Japanese stock market has been experiencing strong momentum.
Japan: From ‘Lost Decades’ to a ‘Recovery Decade’?
Since trade tensions eased in April 2025, the Japanese stock market has been experiencing strong momentum.
United Kingdom unemployment hits highest level since 2021
The UK unemployment rate reached 5.0% in September, its highest level since 2021.
Macroeconomic Focus – October 2025
The U.S. government has been in shutdown since October 1.
Business Confidence in France: Political Uncertainty Has Limited Impact
The French national statistics office (INSEE) released its October business confidence indicators this week.
Exploring the Diverse Landscape of High Yield Issuers
Over the past three years, the high-yield segment of the fixed income market has enjoyed a supportive backdrop.
United States: When Banks Only Lend to Financial Institutions
The Federal Reserve publishes weekly data on loans issued by banking institutions.
Pharma Sector Shines Again
While the Chinese economy demonstrated resilience in the first half of the year, economic data from July and August painted a more concerning picture, with most indicators showing signs of weakness.
China: A ‘K-shaped’ Evolution
While the Chinese economy demonstrated resilience in the first half of the year, economic data from July and August painted a more concerning picture, with most indicators showing signs of weakness.
Banking Sector: Still Moderate Valuations
Since the beginning of the year, the banking sector has achieved strong performance.
France: A Familiar Unknown to the Markets
Chart of the Week Recent political developments in France have been reflected in fixed-income markets through the widening spread between French and German bond yields. This trend highlights investors’ demand for higher returns to compensate for holding French debt instead of German debt. Since the French Prime Minister’s press conference on August 25, the spread…
Short-Term Bonds Widen the Gap Against Money Market
Chart of the Week Since the beginning of the year, the ECB has cut its key interest rates four times, bringing its deposit rate down to 2%, compared with 3% at the end of 2024. Reflecting these adjustments, the €STR -which serves as the key money market benchmark – has returned to 1.9% and could…
German Industrial Production Stabilizes: A Good Sign for Europe’s Economy
Chart of the Week Like Canada and the United Kingdom, the Eurozone benefited in the first quarter from an increase in U.S. imports driven by anticipation of higher tariffs. Since April, however, this trend has reversed, leading to a decline in European exports. However, German industrial production is showing signs of stabilization. In May, it…
A banking sector still undervalued
Chart of the Week The banking sector has experienced significant growth in the stock market, with the Euro Stoxx Banks index up 39.46% YTD as of July 3, excluding the effect of reinvested dividends. Despite this impressive performance, the sector’s valuation metrics remain very moderate. For example, the Price-to-Book ratio, which measures a company’s market…
US Employment: Could Household Concerns Signal a Downturn?
Chart of the Week With the US unemployment rate holding steady at a historically low 4.2%, job creation remains strong. In May alone, nearly 140,000 jobs were added in the non-farm private sector, enough to keep unemployment from rising. However, households are increasingly worried about the state of the labor market. OUR ANALYSIS Household anxiety…
Quantitative Easing: Commercial banks take over from the ECB
Chart of the Week To invest their excess liquidity (customer deposits) and maintain their Net Interest Income (NII), commercial banks in the Eurozone have significantly increased their bond purchases in financial markets since 2021. OUR ANALYSIS It’s interesting to note that while commercial banks’ bond purchases have increased, the ECB’s asset purchases have gradually come…
Ireland, a source of economic volatility for the Eurozone
Chart of the Week Although Ireland makes up about 4% of the Eurozone’s total GDP, it accounted for more than half of the region’s growth in the first quarter of 2025. With a striking 9.7% increase GDP, Ireland alone contributed over 0.3 percentage points to the Eurozone’s total growth of 0.6%. OUR ANALYSIS The Celtic…
Small Caps Make a Comeback
Chart of the Week Since 2018, European small caps have significantly underperformed large caps. By the end of April 2025, they were trading at a record discount of around 20% compared to large caps. This is striking as small caps have historically traded at a premium to large caps. But in recent months, the tide…
The U.S. Residential Real Estate Market at a Crossroads
Chart of the Week The U.S. residential real estate market is navigating through a challenging period. The latest NAHB Housing Market Index reveals a further decline in builder confidence, hitting its lowest point since December 2022. Additionally, building permits for single-family homes have dropped by 7% over the past two months. OUR ANALYSIS This situation…
Credit markets have wiped out the March-April shock
Chart of the Week After experiencing significant volatility and a downturn in March and April, European bond markets managed to regain positive momentum in just a few weeks. Year-to-date, Investment Grade, High Yield, and AT1 subordinated debt have all delivered positive performances for 2025, with spreads now returning to their levels from early January. OUR…
Banks: earnings prospects remain healthy
Chart of the Week Amid macroeconomic uncertainty, European banks’ earnings prospects through to 2027 look healthy according to recent data from Bank of America. In 2025, analysts expect earnings to dip slightly compared with 2024. In 2026 and 2027, banks are expected to report earnings growth. OUR ANALYSIS The banking sector is enjoying several tailwinds,…
Decline in Oil Prices: A Support for Europe
Chart of the Week In February 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict led to a sharp rise in energy prices (oil, natural gas), which contributed decisively to the inflationary shock observed a few months later in the eurozone (+10.6% over 12 months in October 2022). This shock hurt the profitability of industrial companies and placed considerable pressure…
Investment grade bonds: supportive technicals
Chart of the Week The euro investment grade primary market has been particularly upbeat so far this year. Excluding financial institutions and property companies, year-to-date gross corporate issuance at the end of March stood at €97 billion, according to Barclays data. In terms of net issuance, which is new bonds being issued minus those being…
The impact of tariffs on US inflation expectations
Chart of the Week The cascade of tariff hike announcements has had an almost immediate impact on firms’ and households’ inflation expectations. Firms report that they could raise prices in response to increasing costs. Tariff hikes typically induce a one-time price shock and lead to a transitory rise in inflation, i.e. a bump in year-on-year…
European Equities Regain Their Footing
Chart of the Week In 2024, US equities significantly outperformed other market segments. Since the end of February, the trend has reversed. The major US indices have retreated since the start of the year (S&P 500 down by 3% on 19 March), while European equities are up (9% for the Stoxx 600). As a result,…
Economic uncertainty: An unprecedented price scissors effect between Europe and the United States
Chart of the Week With an average of two executive orders per working day, the U.S. administration is moving full steam ahead with implementing its agenda. Beyond the rolling back of measures taken by the previous administration, economic players must also contend with the actions of the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which are…
High Yield proves resilient to rising interest rates
Chart of the Week Since the beginning of February 2025, some tensions have emerged in European bond markets. On 5 March, benchmark rates notably surged following Ursula von der Leyen’s announcement of the €800 billion ‘ReArm Europe’ plan. It’s worth noting that this movement had a limited impact on the European High Yield market, unlike…
Economic & market outlook – January 2025
While some aspects of the new US administration’s program could boost investor optimism, others are likely to have a negative impact on the US economy and the rest of the world. The resulting volatility could create investment opportunities to be seized. Economic outlook United States: greater political uncertainty The outcome of the U.S. elections has…
Macroeconomic focus – February 2025
Robust economy and Trump policies could derail inflation Donald Trump’s inauguration on 20 January was a historic event. Since then, 65 executive orders addressing a wide array of subjects have been signed. The reciprocal tariffs to be phased in between April and August may treat foreign VAT as a tariff and are set to expand Trump’s…
US inflation: fears resurface among consumers
Chart of the Week The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey includes questions on inflation expectations. In February, following a sharp decline since 2022, the survey revealed that consumers expect price rises to reach 6% over the next 12 months. This finding is consistent with data from the latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey where…
Small caps: are the planets set to align?
Chart of the Week Companies with small market capitalisations have a track record of outperforming larger caps during central bank rate-cutting cycles. The effect comes with a lag: following the initial ECB rate cuts in 2001, 2008 and 2011, it took over six months for small caps to begin significantly outpacing large caps in Europe.…
United States: is it possible to reduce federal spending?
Chart of the Week Among Donald Trump’s many announcements since his election, the announcement of the creation of a new Department of Government Efficiency, co-directed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, stood out. Vivek Ramaswamy has set the goal of finding USD 2,000 billion in savings, which represents almost a third of federal level public…
AT1 Bonds: An unprecedented supply surge
Chart of the Week In September, the primary market for AT1 bonds saw an unprecedented supply surge, with issuers raising over €13 billion. Since AT1 bonds were introduced in 2014, the monthly issuance tally had never exceeded €10 billion. OUR ANALYSIS September’s issuance accounts for around 6% of the AT1 market. The surge was sparked by issuers choosing…
Freight: an inflationary risk is reappearing
Chart of the Week The latest news about inflation in the United States indicates that things are moving in the right direction, both for services and goods. In June, prices (excluding food and energy) limited their rise to +0.1%. Year-on-year, the rise was of +3.3%, with services contributing for +3.7% and goods for -0.4%. If…
Which factors have boosted European banking profits?
Chart of the Week In 2023, many European banks posted excellent earnings with profits often reaching levels last seen in 2007 and sometimes hitting all-time highs. In its latest quarterly Risk Dashboard, the European Banking Authority (EBA) clearly identifies the various earnings growth drivers contributing to the rise in return on equity (RoE) for European…
Macroeconomic focus – June 2024
Mixed signals Having slowed sharply in April, job creations recovered more than expected in May, reaching 272,000 according to the business survey. The new jobs were spread across a wide range of sectors. Hourly earnings were also solid, up 0.4% during the month and 4.1% year on year. In contrast, the household survey revealed 408,000…
Americans have never flown so much
Chart of the Week While the latest retail sales figures fell short of expectations and raised questions about the financial health of the American consumer, other figures describe an American economy that is still very dynamic. This is particularly true of the air transport data published by the Transportation Safety Agency. The number of people…
Nordics escape budget concerns
Chart of the Week France’s national debt is in the spotlight following the country’s ratings downgrade to AA- by Standard & Poor’s on 31 May and the dissolution of the National Assembly on 9 June. The outcome of the snap election could be a new government with lavish plans for the economy. Since 10 June, the difference between…
European high yield: a buoyant primary market
Chart of the Week Monthly European high yield bond issuance has reached its highest level since 2021. So far this year, almost €45 billion has been raised on the primary market. This is close to the total volume of issuance reached in 2023 (€47 billion) and almost twice the amount issued in 2022 (€25 billion). OUR ANALYSIS Across…
Euro zone: wage growth remains strong in Q1
Chart of the Week The ECB has just published its estimate of the progression in European wages negotiated by collective agreement in the first quarter. Although a decline was anticipated, the level remains high, at +4.7%. Will this data prevent the ECB from cutting rates in June? OUR ANALYSIS This metric considers only wage trends…
Tokyo to the rescue?
Chart of the Week The yen has had a turbulent week against the US dollar. On Monday 29 April, the Japanese currency slumped to its lowest level against the dollar since 1990, briefly flirting with 160 yen per dollar before recovering to 153. Significant swings on Monday and Wednesday have triggered speculation that Japanese authorities…
