Chart of the week
May’s retail sales figures have jumped sharply. Total sales shot up 17.7% in May, bringing volumes to 7.8% of February’s level, before the crisis.
The rebound confirms the rise in online sales, which grew by 32.2% over two months. E-commerce now accounts for 24% of retail sales, excluding cars and petrol.
Our analysis
An increasing share of retail sales is being carried out online. Prior to the last two months, e-commerce accounted for 15% of retail sales, so lockdown appears to have accelerated the shift towards online shopping. The question is whether the current level will become a new normal or whether there will be a return to the previous long-term trend.
From a macroeconomic perspective, whether a purchase is made online or in-store matters little. However, if the shift triggers retailer bankruptcies, the result will likely be a secondary economic impact.
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The opinion expressed above is dated 17 June 2020 and is liable to change.
This document is not pre-contractual or contractual in nature. It is provided for information purposes. The analyses and descriptions contained in this document shall not be interpreted as being advice or recommendations on the part of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell, nor an encouragement to invest. This document is the intellectual property of Lazard Frères Gestion SAS. LAZARD FRERES GESTION – a simplified joint stock company with share capital of €14,487,500 – Paris Trade and Companies Registry No. 352 213 599. 25, RUE DE COURCELLES – 75008 PARIS, FRANCE
